Guaranteed Profit on Tar Heels vs Huskies Spread

Introduction

A recent opportunity has arisen in the world of sports betting involving a matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies. This event is scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 11:06 am as part of the NCAA Football (NCAAF) league. The following analysis explores the details of this potential arbitrage betting situation.

Analysis

The betting markets have presented two contrasting odds for this game:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Alternate Spreads
• Outcome: North Carolina Tar Heels +8.5
• Odds: +154 (American odds)
• Stake: $410.57

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Alternate Spreads
• Outcome: UConn Huskies -8.5
• Odds: -130 (American odds)
• Stake: $589.43

These bets are placed on opposite outcomes of the same game spread, creating a scenario where only one of the bets can win.

Discussion

To understand the potential outcomes, it's important to convert the American odds to decimal odds:

Bet 1 Odds (+154):

• Decimal Odds = (154 / 100) + 1 = 2.54

Bet 2 Odds (-130):

• Decimal Odds = (100 / 130) + 1 ≈ 1.7692

There are two possible scenarios based on the game's outcome:

Scenario 1: UConn wins by 9 or more points.

• Bet 1 (North Carolina +8.5): Loss of $410.57
• Bet 2 (UConn -8.5): Profit = $589.43 × (1.7692 - 1) ≈ $453.39
• Net Result: $453.39 - $410.57 = $42.82 profit

Scenario 2: North Carolina wins or loses by 8 points or fewer.

• Bet 1 (North Carolina +8.5): Profit = $410.57 × (2.54 - 1) ≈ $632.28
• Bet 2 (UConn -8.5): Loss of $589.43
• Net Result: $632.28 - $589.43 = $42.85 profit

In both scenarios, the net result is a positive return, assuming the bets are accepted as outlined.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that this betting situation presents a potential for a consistent profit regardless of the game's outcome. By placing opposing bets on the alternate spreads offered by different bookmakers, the calculated returns suggest a net gain in both possible scenarios.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their decisions before engaging in any betting activities.