Guaranteed Profit on Nebraska vs. Boston College First Quarter Bet (ROI: 11.2%)
Introduction
An analysis has been conducted on a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NCAA Football (NCAAF) game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Boston College Eagles, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 12:06 pm. The focus is on the First Quarter Head-to-Head market (h2h_q1), with bets placed on opposing outcomes across two different bookmakers.
Analysis
The proposed strategy involves two bets:
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Outcome: Boston College Eagles to win Q1
Odds: -180 (American odds)
Stake: $714.87
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Outcome: Nebraska Cornhuskers to win Q1
Odds: +290 (American odds)
Stake: $285.13
The total stake is $1,000. By placing these bets, the strategy aims to cover both possible winning outcomes in the first quarter, potentially securing a profit regardless of which team leads at the end of the quarter.
Converting the American odds to decimal odds for clarity:
Boston College Eagles at -180: Decimal Odds = 1.5555
Nebraska Cornhuskers at +290: Decimal Odds = 3.90
Discussion
Outcome 1: Boston College Eagles Win Q1
Payout from Bet 1: $714.87 × 1.5555 = $1,112.02
Profit from Bet 1: $1,112.02 - $714.87 = $397.15
Loss from Bet 2: -$285.13
Total Profit: $397.15 - $285.13 = $112.02
Outcome 2: Nebraska Cornhuskers Win Q1
Payout from Bet 2: $285.13 × 3.90 = $1,112.01
Profit from Bet 2: $1,112.01 - $285.13 = $826.88
Loss from Bet 1: -$714.87
Total Profit: $826.88 - $714.87 = $112.01
Outcome 3: First Quarter Ends in a Tie
According to both FanDuel and DraftKings rules, a tie in a two-way market typically results in a push, and stakes are refunded.
Total Refund: $714.87 + $285.13 = $1,000
Total Profit: $0
The analysis indicates that there is a potential profit of approximately $112 in scenarios where either team wins the first quarter. In the event of a tie, the bets are voided, and the original stakes are returned, resulting in no profit or loss.
Conclusion
This arbitrage betting strategy leverages the differences in odds offered by two bookmakers in the sports betting market. While it presents an opportunity for a profit in certain outcomes, it's important to consider the possibility of a tie, which would negate the expected returns. As with all arbitrage betting, understanding the rules of each bookmaker and the likelihood of each outcome is crucial.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Always gamble responsibly and review the terms and conditions of each bookmaker before placing any bets.