Guaranteed Profit in Memphis vs. Ole Miss NCAAB Game (ROI: 10.0%)
Introduction
A new potential opportunity in sports betting has been identified for the upcoming NCAAB match between the Memphis Tigers and the Ole Miss Rebels, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This involves an arbitrage betting scenario on the total points market across two different bookmakers: FanDuel and BetMGM.
Analysis
The proposed arbitrage bet comprises two wagers placed on the same market but opposite outcomes:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Over 153.5 points
- Odds: +175
- Stake: $400.00
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 153.5 points
- Odds: -120
- Stake: $600.00
Both bets are placed on the total points scored in the game, with the total set at 153.5 points. The stakes are structured to cover all possible outcomes, ensuring that one bet will result in a win while the other will not.
Discussion
Calculating the potential outcomes:
Scenario 1: Total Points Over 153.5
- Bet 1 Wins: The payout is calculated as follows:
Potential Profit: $400 x 1.75 = $700
Total Return: $400 (stake) + $700 (profit) = $1,100
- Bet 2 Loses: The stake of $600 is lost.
Net Result: $1,100 (win) - $600 (loss) = $500 return on a $1,000 total stake, yielding a $100 profit.
Scenario 2: Total Points Under 153.5
- Bet 2 Wins: The payout is calculated as follows:
Potential Profit: $600 x (100/120) = $500
Total Return: $600 (stake) + $500 (profit) = $1,100
- Bet 1 Loses: The stake of $400 is lost.
Net Result: $1,100 (win) - $400 (loss) = $700 return on a $1,000 total stake, yielding a $100 profit.
This analysis indicates that, regardless of the game's outcome, the total return exceeds the combined stakes, resulting in a net profit.
Conclusion
The outlined arbitrage betting scenario presents a calculated opportunity where the discrepancies in odds between two bookmakers allow for a potential profit. By covering both outcomes of the total points market, there is a structured possibility for a positive return on investment.
It's important to approach such opportunities with careful consideration of all factors involved. This includes verifying the accuracy of odds at the time of placing bets, understanding the terms and conditions set by each bookmaker, and being aware of any external factors that may influence the event.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should assess their own circumstances and consult with professional advisors before engaging in any betting activities. Ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations in your jurisdiction.