Guaranteed Profit in Falcons vs. Panthers NFL Game (ROI: 2.5%)

Introduction

An arbitrage opportunity has emerged for the upcoming NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers, scheduled for January 5, 2025, at 8:03 PM. This opportunity arises due to differing odds offered by two bookmakers, FanDuel and BetRivers, on the Moneyline market. Such discrepancies can potentially allow bettors to secure a guaranteed profit, a strategy commonly explored in sports betting and arbitrage betting.

Analysis

The arbitrage involves placing two bets covering all possible outcomes:

Bet 1:

- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Selection: Carolina Panthers
- Odds: +350 (American odds)
- Stake: $227.85

Bet 2:

- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Selection: Atlanta Falcons
- Odds: -305 (American odds)
- Stake: $772.15

Total Stake: $1,000 ($227.85 + $772.15)

To assess the potential returns, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:

Bet 1 (Carolina Panthers):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (350 / 100) = 4.5

Bet 2 (Atlanta Falcons):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 305) ≈ 1.3279

The potential outcomes are calculated as follows:

If the Carolina Panthers win:
- Return from Bet 1: $227.85 × 4.5 = $1,025.33
- Profit from Bet 1: $1,025.33 - $227.85 = $797.48
- Loss from Bet 2: -$772.15
- Total Profit: $797.48 - $772.15 = $25.33

If the Atlanta Falcons win:
- Return from Bet 2: $772.15 × 1.3279 = $1,025.33
- Profit from Bet 2: $1,025.33 - $772.15 = $253.18
- Loss from Bet 1: -$227.85
- Total Profit: $253.18 - $227.85 = $25.33

In both scenarios, the arbitrage yields a profit of $25.33, representing a 2.53% return on the total stake of $1,000.

Discussion

This arbitrage opportunity leverages the discrepancy in odds between two reputable bookmakers in the sports betting market. The consistent profit across both outcomes suggests a potential risk-free gain. However, several factors should be carefully considered:

Consistency in Market Rules: Both bets are placed on the Moneyline market, which typically includes the result after any overtime periods. It's important to confirm that both FanDuel and BetRivers apply the same rules regarding overtime and tie situations to ensure the bets are directly comparable.

Possibility of a Tie: While ties are rare in the NFL due to overtime rules, they can occur. Verify how each bookmaker handles tie outcomes in the Moneyline market to avoid unexpected losses.

Validity of Odds: Ensure that the odds are current and accurately reflect the market. Significant deviations may result from errors or rapid changes in the betting market.

Bet Acceptance and Limits: Confirm that both bookmakers accept the proposed stakes without limit reductions or restrictions, which are common in arbitrage betting scenarios.

Legality and Compliance: Adhere to all legal regulations concerning sports betting in your jurisdiction, including age restrictions and licensing requirements.

Potential Account Limitations: Frequent arbitrage betting may lead to bookmakers imposing limitations or closing accounts. Consider the long-term implications for account standing with each bookmaker.

Conclusion

The identified arbitrage opportunity presents a calculated method to potentially secure a profit in sports betting by capitalizing on the odds discrepancies between FanDuel and BetRivers. While the mathematical calculations indicate a positive return regardless of the game's outcome, due diligence is essential. Verifying bookmaker rules, ensuring consistent market terms, and confirming bet acceptance are crucial steps in mitigating risks associated with arbitrage betting.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Sports betting involves inherent risks, and individuals should carefully consider their objectives and consult with a professional before engaging in betting activities.