Gonzaga vs. UCLA: Exploit Arbitrage on Team Totals (ROI: 13.1%)
Introduction
An opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for the upcoming game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the UCLA Bruins on December 28, 2024. Discrepancies in odds between two bookmakers for the Gonzaga Bulldogs' alternate team totals present a potential arbitrage betting scenario.
Analysis
Event Details:
- Date and Time: December 28, 2024, at 4:06 PM
- Teams: Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. UCLA Bruins
- Market: Alternate Team Totals (Gonzaga Bulldogs Over/Under 73.5 points)
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Outcome: Gonzaga Bulldogs Over 73.5 points
- Odds: +110
- Stake: $538.46
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Outcome: Gonzaga Bulldogs Under 73.5 points
- Odds: +145
- Stake: $461.54
The total stake across both bets is $1,000.
Converting Odds to Decimal:
For calculation purposes, American odds are converted to decimal odds using the formula:
Decimal Odds = 1 + (American Odds / 100)
- Bet 1 (Over 73.5 points): Decimal Odds = 1 + (110 / 100) = 2.10
- Bet 2 (Under 73.5 points): Decimal Odds = 1 + (145 / 100) = 2.45
Discussion
Arbitrage Verification:
An arbitrage opportunity is indicated when the sum of the inverses of the decimal odds is less than 1:
(1 / 2.10) + (1 / 2.45) = 0.4762 + 0.4082 = 0.8844
Since 0.8844 < 1, this suggests a potential arbitrage situation.
Potential Outcomes and Calculations:
There are two possible outcomes for the Gonzaga Bulldogs' team total:
- Gonzaga scores over 73.5 points (74 or more):
- Bet 1 wins:
Payout = $538.46 × 2.10 = $1,130.77
Profit = $1,130.77 - $1,000 (total stake) = $130.77
- Bet 2 loses: The stake of $461.54 is lost. - Gonzaga scores under 73.5 points (73 or fewer):
- Bet 2 wins:
Payout = $461.54 × 2.45 = $1,130.77
Profit = $1,130.77 - $1,000 (total stake) = $130.77
- Bet 1 loses: The stake of $538.46 is lost.
In both scenarios, the net profit is $130.77.
Considerations:
- Market Consistency: Both bets are on the same market (Gonzaga Bulldogs Over/Under 73.5 points). It's important to ensure that both bookmakers are offering bets on identical terms, including any conditions related to overtime.
- Odds Confirmation: Odds can fluctuate. Confirm that the odds are as stated at the time of placing the bets.
- Stake Limits: Bookmakers may have maximum stake limits that could affect the ability to place the necessary wagers.
- Bookmaker Policies: Review the terms and conditions of both bookmakers to be aware of any rules that might affect bet settlement.
Conclusion
The analysis highlights a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for the Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. UCLA Bruins game. By placing calculated stakes on opposing outcomes with different bookmakers, there is a possibility of achieving a net profit of $130.77, irrespective of the game's result, assuming all bets are honored and settled according to standard practices.
Disclaimer
This information is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and it is important to conduct thorough research and consider individual circumstances before engaging in any betting activities.