Gonzaga Bulldogs Points Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 10.8%)
Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has been identified involving two bets on the same event in sports betting. The bets are placed on the Gonzaga Bulldogs' team total points in a basketball game, with one bet for over 69.5 points and the other for under 69.5 points. The potential arbitrage arises from discrepancies in odds offered by different bookmakers.
Analysis
The two bets are as follows:
Bet 1 (Over 69.5 Points)
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Alternate Team Totals
Participant: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Outcome: Over 69.5 points
Odds: -180
Stake: $712.23
Bet 2 (Under 69.5 Points)
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Market: Alternate Team Totals
Participant: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Outcome: Under 69.5 points
Odds: +285
Stake: $287.77
The implied probabilities based on the provided odds are calculated as follows:
For Bet 1 (Odds -180):
Implied Probability = (-(-180)) / ((-(-180)) + 100) = 180 / (180 + 100) ≈ 64.29%
For Bet 2 (Odds +285):
Implied Probability = 100 / (285 + 100) = 100 / 385 ≈ 25.97%
Total Implied Probability = 64.29% + 25.97% ≈ 90.26%
Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, there appears to be an arbitrage opportunity.
Discussion
Calculating potential outcomes for both scenarios:
Scenario 1: Gonzaga Scores Over 69.5 Points
Bet 1 wins:
Profit = Stake × (100 / -Odds) = $712.23 × (100 / 180) ≈ $395.68
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $712.23 + $395.68 = $1,107.91
Bet 2 loses the stake of $287.77.
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,107.91 - ($712.23 + $287.77) = $107.91
Scenario 2: Gonzaga Scores Under 69.5 Points
Bet 2 wins:
Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100) = $287.77 × (285 / 100) ≈ $819.13
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $287.77 + $819.13 = $1,106.90
Bet 1 loses the stake of $712.23.
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,106.90 - ($712.23 + $287.77) = $106.90
In both scenarios, a net profit of approximately $107 is realized, suggesting a potential arbitrage in sports betting. However, several factors should be considered:
Market Rules and Terms: Verify if both bookmakers include overtime in the total points market. Discrepancies in rules could affect the outcome.
Bet Acceptance and Limits: Bookmakers may impose stake limits or adjust odds, impacting the arbitrage opportunity.
Bookmaker Policies: Frequent engagement in arbitrage betting may lead to account restrictions or closures.
Event Timing: The event is over a year away, increasing the risk of schedule changes or market adjustments.
Conclusion
While the mathematical calculations indicate a potential arbitrage opportunity with a profit regardless of the game's outcome, practical considerations may impact the actual results. Factors such as bookmaker rules, bet acceptance, and event timing play significant roles in the feasibility of this arbitrage bet. It is crucial to thoroughly analyze all aspects and understand the associated risks in sports betting and arbitrage betting.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy of the information or the potential outcomes. Please ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations related to sports betting in your jurisdiction.