Georgetown vs. Coppin St: Arbitrage Alert

This betting opportunity may present a potential arbitrage betting situation in the sports betting market. Let's delve into a detailed analysis to explore this and highlight any considerations.

Event Details

Match: Georgetown Hoyas vs. Coppin St Eagles
Date and Time: December 28, 2024, at 12:00 PM
League: NCAA Men's Basketball (NCAAB)
Market: Alternate Team Totals (Points scored by Georgetown Hoyas)

Bet Breakdown

Bet 1

Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: Alternate Team Totals
Outcome: Under 83.5 points
Participant: Georgetown Hoyas
Odds: +115 (American odds)
Stake: $481.93

Bet 2

Bookmaker: DraftKings
Market: Alternate Team Totals
Outcome: Over 83.5 points
Participant: Georgetown Hoyas
Odds: +100 (American odds)
Stake: $518.07

Odds Conversion

Converting the American odds to decimal odds for clearer calculations:

• Bet 1 Odds (+115): Decimal Odds = (115 / 100) + 1 = 2.15
• Bet 2 Odds (+100): Decimal Odds = (100 / 100) + 1 = 2.00

Possible Outcomes and Profit Calculation

Analyzing both possible scenarios to calculate net profits:

Scenario 1: Georgetown Hoyas Score Under 83.5 Points

• Bet 1 Wins:
  • Return = $481.93 × 2.15 = $1,036.15
  • Profit = $1,036.15 - $481.93 = $554.22
• Bet 2 Loses:
  • Loss = -$518.07
• Net Profit: $554.22 - $518.07 = $36.15

Scenario 2: Georgetown Hoyas Score Over 83.5 Points

• Bet 1 Loses:
  • Loss = -$481.93
• Bet 2 Wins:
  • Return = $518.07 × 2.00 = $1,036.14
  • Profit = $1,036.14 - $518.07 = $518.07
• Net Profit: $518.07 - $481.93 = $36.14

Summary of Outcomes

If Under 83.5 wins: Net Profit ≈ $36.15
If Over 83.5 wins: Net Profit ≈ $36.14

If both bets are placed as outlined and all conditions remain consistent, there is a possibility of securing a profit of approximately $36, regardless of the game's outcome.

Percentage Return on Investment

Total Stake: $481.93 + $518.07 = $1,000
Potential Profit: $36.14 (minimum of the two scenarios)
Return on Investment (ROI): ($36.14 / $1,000) × 100% = 3.61%

Validation of Potential Arbitrage Opportunity

This situation may present an arbitrage opportunity due to:

• Differing Odds: The bookmakers offer different odds on opposite outcomes of the same event.
• Same Market and Conditions: Both bets are on the alternate team total of 83.5 points for Georgetown Hoyas, under consistent conditions.

Potential Risks and Considerations

While the calculations indicate a potential profit, it's important to consider potential risks:

1. Betting Limits:
   • Stake Limits: Verify that both bookmakers accept the desired stakes, as there may be maximum bet limits.
   • Account Restrictions: Be aware that certain betting patterns might trigger limits or account reviews.
2. Market Rules and Conditions:
   • Consistency in Rules: Confirm that both bookmakers settle the market under the same rules, including overtime and void policies.
   • Bet Settlement Policies: Check terms related to postponements, cancellations, or venue changes.
3. Odds Movement:
   • Timing: Odds can change quickly; consider placing both bets simultaneously.
   • Confirmation: Ensure bets are accepted at the quoted odds before assuming the opportunity is secure.
4. Technical Issues:
   • Website/App Reliability: Avoid placing bets during peak times to reduce the risk of delays.
   • Bet Rejection or Delay: Be cautious of bets that require approval, as odds might change.
5. Human Error:
   • Double-Check Bets: Verify the correct market, outcome, and stake before confirming.
6. Bookmaker Policies:
   • Arbitrage Betting: Some bookmakers discourage arbitrage betting and may restrict accounts engaged in it.
   • Promotional Restrictions: Ensure bets are not placed with bonus funds, which may have different terms.

Recommendations

• Verify Market Details: Ensure that both bookmakers list the market identically and under the same conditions.
• Monitor Account Activity: Be mindful of betting patterns to avoid drawing unwanted attention from bookmakers.
• Stay Updated: Keep an eye on announcements that might affect the bets, such as rule changes or market adjustments.

Conclusion

Based on the provided information and calculations, this opportunity may offer a potential profit of approximately $36 on a total stake of $1,000. By carefully considering both markets and potential risks, bettors can assess the viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity within the sports betting landscape.

Note: This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and ensure compliance with local laws and regulations related to sports betting.