First Half Moneyline Arb: Georgia State vs. Mercer (ROI: 33.5%)
Introduction
A potential arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the First Half Moneyline market for the NCAA Men's Basketball game between the Georgia State Panthers and the Mercer Bears, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:00 PM. This opportunity arises due to differing odds offered by two bookmakers, FanDuel and BetMGM, on the same market outcome.
Analysis
The details of the bets are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: First Half Moneyline (h2h_h1)
- Team: Mercer Bears
- Odds: -154 (American odds)
- Stake: $809.31
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: First Half Moneyline (h2h_h1)
- Team: Georgia State Panthers
- Odds: +600 (American odds)
- Stake: $190.69
The total stake for both bets is $1,000.
The First Half Moneyline market involves wagering on which team will lead at halftime. It is essential to determine whether this market is a 2-way market, where a tie results in a push (and stakes are returned), or a 3-way market, where a tie is a separate betting option, and bets on either team lose if the half ends in a tie.
Discussion
Scenario 1: Mercer Bears Lead at Halftime
- Bet 1 Outcome: Wins
- Odds Conversion: -154 converts to decimal odds of approximately 1.6494
- Payout: $809.31 × 1.6494 ≈ $1,335.87
- Bet 2 Outcome: Loses ($190.69 loss)
- Net Profit: $1,335.87 - $1,000 = $335.87
Scenario 2: Georgia State Panthers Lead at Halftime
- Bet 1 Outcome: Loses ($809.31 loss)
- Bet 2 Outcome: Wins
- Odds Conversion: +600 converts to decimal odds of 7.00
- Payout: $190.69 × 7.00 = $1,334.83
- Net Profit: $1,334.83 - $1,000 = $334.83
Scenario 3: Halftime Tie
- If both bets are placed in a 2-way market where ties result in a push:
- Both stakes are returned ($0 profit or loss).
- If either bet is in a 3-way market where ties result in a loss:
- Both bets lose, resulting in a total loss of $1,000.
The critical factor in this analysis is how ties are handled by both bookmakers in the First Half Moneyline market. For the arbitrage opportunity to be valid and risk-free, both bets must be placed in markets with identical rules regarding ties.
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Conclusion
The potential arbitrage opportunity depends on both FanDuel and BetMGM offering the First Half Moneyline as a 2-way market with the same tie rules. If this condition is met, the calculated net profit would be approximately $335, regardless of which team leads at halftime. However, discrepancies in market rules could result in a significant risk, including the possibility of losing the entire stake if the half ends in a tie and ties result in losses.
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Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Individuals should perform their own due diligence and consult official sources before making any decisions related to sports betting or arbitrage opportunities.