Exposing the Tie Risk in NCAAB Arbitrage Bet (ROI: 13.1%)

Introduction

A recent betting opportunity has emerged in the NCAAB game between the North Carolina A&T Aggies and the North Carolina Central Eagles scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:05 pm. This potential arbitrage bet involves placing wagers on opposite outcomes in the first half moneyline market with two different bookmakers: FanDuel and BetMGM.

Analysis

Details of the bets are as follows:

Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: First Half Moneyline
Selection: North Carolina Central Eagles
Odds: +114
Stake: $528.63

Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: First Half Moneyline
Selection: North Carolina A&T Aggies
Odds: +140
Stake: $471.37

At first glance, this situation seems to present an arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. By placing bets on both teams to lead at halftime, it appears that a profit could be secured regardless of which team is ahead. Calculations for potential returns are as follows:

Scenario 1: Eagles Lead at Halftime
Winnings from Bet 1: $528.63 x (114/100) = $602.63
Total Return: $528.63 + $602.63 = $1,131.26
Loss from Bet 2: $471.37
Net Profit: $1,131.26 - $471.37 - $528.63 + $1,131.26 = $131.26

Scenario 2: Aggies Lead at Halftime
Winnings from Bet 2: $471.37 x (140/100) = $660.00
Total Return: $471.37 + $660.00 = $1,131.37
Loss from Bet 1: $528.63
Net Profit: $1,131.37 - $528.63 - $471.37 + $1,131.37 = $131.37

Discussion

Despite the calculated potential profits, there is a critical factor that could affect the outcome: the possibility of a tie at halftime. In NCAA men's basketball, it is not uncommon for the first half to end in a tie. This scenario introduces a risk that challenges the assumption of a risk-free arbitrage bet.

Bookmaker Rules on Ties: The key to understanding the true risk lies in how each bookmaker handles a tie in the first half moneyline market. The potential outcomes are:

• Push (Stake Refunded): If both bookmakers consider a tie as a push, stakes would be refunded, and no profit or loss would occur in the event of a tie.
• Loss: If one or both bookmakers grade a tie as a loss, the stakes placed on that outcome would be forfeited, resulting in a potential loss equal to the stake(s).
• Three-Way Market: If the market includes a tie as a third betting option, neither of the two placed bets would win in the event of a tie, leading to losses on both bets.

Without confirming that both FanDuel and BetMGM treat a tie as a push, there is a significant risk involved. The potential for both bets to lose if a tie occurs undermines the notion of a guaranteed profit through arbitrage betting.

Conclusion

The presence of a tie outcome in the first half moneyline market introduces a significant risk to this betting strategy. While the calculated returns suggest a profitable arbitrage opportunity, the uncertainty surrounding bookmaker rules on ties means the bet is not risk-free. Before proceeding, it is essential to confirm each bookmaker's policies and carefully consider the likelihood of a tie occurring.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution when making betting decisions.