Exploring Saint Joseph's vs Delaware State Arbitrage Bet (ROI: 14.8%)
Introduction
An interesting scenario has emerged in the sports betting market involving an upcoming NCAAB game between Saint Joseph's Hawks and Delaware State Hornets scheduled for December 28, 2024. Two bets placed on different sportsbooks present a potential arbitrage opportunity. Bet 1 is placed on FanDuel for Saint Joseph's Hawks at odds of -520 with a stake of $962.96, while Bet 2 is placed on DraftKings for Delaware State Hornets at odds of +3000 with a stake of $37.04.
Analysis
To evaluate this potential arbitrage betting opportunity, it is essential to analyze the odds and calculate the potential returns and net profits for each outcome.
Converting American Odds to Decimal Odds:
For Saint Joseph's Hawks (-520): Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 520) ≈ 1.1923.
For Delaware State Hornets (+3000): Decimal Odds = 1 + (3000 / 100) = 31.00.
Calculating Potential Returns and Net Profits:
Scenario 1: Saint Joseph's Hawks Win
Bet 1 Return: $962.96 × 1.1923 ≈ $1,148.91.
Bet 2 Return: $0 (loss).
Total Return: $1,148.91.
Net Profit: $1,148.91 - ($962.96 + $37.04) = $148.91.
Scenario 2: Delaware State Hornets Win
Bet 1 Return: $0 (loss).
Bet 2 Return: $37.04 × 31.00 = $1,148.24.
Total Return: $1,148.24.
Net Profit: $1,148.24 - ($962.96 + $37.04) = $148.24.
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $148, indicating a theoretical arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market.
Discussion
While the calculations suggest a profitable arbitrage betting opportunity, several factors require careful consideration.
Implied Probabilities:
For Saint Joseph's Hawks (-520): Implied Probability = 520 / (520 + 100) ≈ 83.87%.
For Delaware State Hornets (+3000): Implied Probability = 100 / (3000 + 100) ≈ 3.23%.
Total Implied Probability: 83.87% + 3.23% = 87.10%.
Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, this indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity.
Arbitrage Percentage:
Arbitrage Percentage = (1 / 1.1923) + (1 / 31.00) ≈ 0.839 + 0.0323 = 0.8713 or 87.13%.
Arbitrage Margin: 100% - 87.13% = 12.87%.
This margin represents the theoretical profit percentage available from this sports betting arbitrage.
Potential Risks:
Odds Discrepancy: The odds of +3000 for Delaware State Hornets are unusually high, which may be due to a palpable error. Sportsbooks may void bets placed on erroneous odds, affecting the arbitrage outcome.
Bet Cancellation: If one bet is voided while the other stands, the bettor could incur a significant loss. It is crucial to consider the sportsbook's terms and conditions regarding bet cancellations and errors.
Event Uncertainty: With the event scheduled far in advance, there is a higher risk of postponement or cancellation, which can impact the bets differently depending on each sportsbook's policies.
Bookmaker Policies: Engaging in arbitrage betting may violate some sportsbooks' terms of service, potentially leading to account restrictions or closures.
Conclusion
The scenario presents a theoretical arbitrage opportunity with a consistent net profit regardless of the game's outcome. However, practical considerations such as potential odds errors, bet cancellations, event uncertainties, and sportsbook policies introduce risks that could affect the profitability and viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity. Careful evaluation of these factors is essential before proceeding.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. No guarantees are made regarding the outcome of any bets or strategies mentioned. Individuals should assess their own risks and consult with a professional advisor before engaging in sports betting or arbitrage betting activities.