Exploit Odds Difference on NC vs UConn December Game (ROI: 10.8%)
Arbitrage Opportunity in Total Points Market for December 28, 2024 Game
An analysis has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies scheduled for December 28, 2024. This involves placing bets on the total points market across two different bookmakers, potentially allowing bettors to capitalize on differences in odds within the sports betting landscape.
Detailed Analysis of the Bets
The opportunity arises from the following two bets:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 40.5
- Odds: +220 (Decimal Odds: 3.20)
- Stake: $346.20
- Potential Payout: $1,107.84 (Stake × Decimal Odds)
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Totals
- Outcome: Over 40.5
- Odds: -144 (Decimal Odds: 1.6944)
- Stake: $653.80
- Potential Payout: $1,107.69 (Stake × Decimal Odds)
The total amount wagered is $1,000, divided between the two bets based on their respective odds to balance potential returns.
Potential Outcomes and Implications
The total points scored in the game will result in one of two outcomes:
Scenario 1: Total Points Under 40.5
- Bet 1 Wins: Receives a payout of $1,107.84
- Bet 2 Loses: Loses the stake of $653.80
- Net Return: $1,107.84 - $1,000 = $107.84
Scenario 2: Total Points Over 40.5
- Bet 2 Wins: Receives a payout of $1,107.69
- Bet 1 Loses: Loses the stake of $346.20
- Net Return: $1,107.69 - $1,000 = $107.69
In both scenarios, the potential payout exceeds the total stakes, indicating that an arbitrage betting opportunity may exist. This occurs due to the variance in odds between the two bookmakers, highlighting a chance to potentially secure a positive return regardless of the game's outcome.
Summary of the Arbitrage Analysis
This analysis suggests that by strategically placing bets on both the over and under outcomes at specific odds and stakes, there is a potential to realize a net return of approximately $107.70 on a $1,000 total stake. This represents an estimated 10.77% return on the amount wagered. Such opportunities in arbitrage betting stem from discrepancies in bookmakers' odds and can be a point of interest for those engaged in sports betting. It is important to assess all variables and remain aware of changing odds and market conditions.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in betting activities. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should make decisions based on their own assessment and discretion. Odds and market conditions are subject to change, and past performance is not indicative of future results.