Exploit George Mason vs. Mt. St. Mary's Betting Odds (ROI: 9.6%)
Introduction
An arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAAB game between the George Mason Patriots and the Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:00 PM. This opportunity involves placing opposing bets on the Over/Under 126.5 total points market across two different bookmakers.
Analysis
The arbitrage betting scenario consists of two bets:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 126.5 points
- Odds: +150 (Decimal odds: 2.50)
- Stake: $438.50
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Over 126.5 points
- Odds: -105 (Decimal odds: 1.9524)
- Stake: $561.50
The total amount wagered is $1,000, composed of the stakes from both bets. Potential payouts are calculated as follows:
Bet 1 Potential Payout: $438.50 × 2.50 = $1,096.25
Bet 2 Potential Payout: $561.50 × 1.9524 ≈ $1,097.21
Discussion
There are two possible outcomes for the total points scored in the game:
1. Total Points Under 126.5:
Bet 1 wins, and Bet 2 loses.
Net Profit Calculation:
Total Winnings: $1,096.25
Total Stakes: $1,000
Net Profit: $1,096.25 - $1,000 = $96.25
2. Total Points Over 126.5:
Bet 2 wins, and Bet 1 loses.
Net Profit Calculation:
Total Winnings: $1,097.21
Total Stakes: $1,000
Net Profit: $1,097.21 - $1,000 = $97.21
In both scenarios, a net profit of approximately $96 to $97 is realized, indicating a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market.
However, several factors should be carefully considered:
- Bookmaker Terms and Conditions: Review both BetMGM and BetRivers policies on arbitrage betting, as some bookmakers may restrict or penalize such activities.
- Market Consistency: Ensure that both bets are placed on the exact same market and that the market rules (including overtime) are consistent across both bookmakers.
- Stake Acceptance: Confirm that both bookmakers will accept the proposed stakes without limitations or restrictions.
- External Risks: Be aware of potential game postponements, cancellations, or any other unforeseen events that could affect the settlement of the bets.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity with possible profits regardless of the game's outcome. By strategically placing bets on both the over and under of the same total points market with different bookmakers, the calculated net gains suggest a favorable position.
It is important to consider all associated risks, including bookmaker policies, market rules, and external factors. Thorough due diligence is recommended to ensure adherence to all terms and conditions and to understand the potential implications fully.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only regarding arbitrage betting in sports betting markets. It does not constitute advice or a recommendation to participate in any betting activities. Betting involves risk, and individuals should ensure they understand the risks involved and comply with all applicable laws and regulations.