Exploit DraftKings-BetMGM Odds for NCAA Football Arbitrage (ROI: 35.0%)

Introduction

A recent betting opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAA Football game between the Colorado State Rams and the Miami (OH) RedHawks, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 4:38 PM. This potential arbitrage betting scenario involves the Alternate Totals market, specifically focusing on the total points over/under 46.5.

Analysis

The betting details are as follows:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: DraftKings
• Market: Under 46.5 points
• Odds: +170
• Stake: $500

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Over 46.5 points
• Odds: +170
• Stake: $500

With both bookmakers offering odds of +170, the decimal odds conversion yields 2.70 for each outcome. The implied probability for each bet is approximately 37.04%.

Potential Outcomes and Calculations:

If the total points scored are under 46.5:

• Bet 1 Wins: Potential return of $1,350 (stake of $500 multiplied by decimal odds of 2.70).
• Bet 2 Loses: Loss of $500.
• Net Result: $1,350 (win) - $500 (loss) = $850.

If the total points scored are over 46.5:

• Bet 2 Wins: Potential return of $1,350.
• Bet 1 Loses: Loss of $500.
• Net Result: $1,350 (win) - $500 (loss) = $850.

Considering the total stakes of $1,000 ($500 on each bet), the net profit in either scenario would be $1,350 (total return) - $1,000 (total stakes) = $350.

Discussion

This situation appears to present an arbitrage betting opportunity, where placing bets on all possible outcomes across different bookmakers could lead to a profit regardless of the event's result. However, several factors should be carefully evaluated:

• Odds Verification: It is uncommon for both the over and under bets on the same total points market to offer identical positive odds. This warrants confirmation to ensure there are no errors in the posted odds.
• Market Consistency: Ensuring that both bets are placed on the exact same market and terms is crucial. Any discrepancies, such as differences in game periods or specific conditions, could affect the outcome.
• Bookmaker Policies: Bookmakers may have terms and conditions regarding arbitrage betting, stake limits, or may void bets if they detect pricing errors or suspect exploitation.
• Risk of Voided Bets: In the event of a palpable error or mismatch in the offered odds, bookmakers may void the bets, which could impact the expected outcome.
• Regulatory Considerations: The legality and acceptance of arbitrage betting can vary by jurisdiction, and it is important to be aware of any local regulations or restrictions regarding sports betting and arbitrage activities.

Conclusion

While the presented bets on the Colorado State Rams vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks game suggest a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market, it is important to approach this scenario with caution. Verifying the accuracy of the odds, ensuring market consistency, understanding bookmaker policies, and being aware of legal considerations are all critical steps in evaluating the feasibility of this opportunity.

Careful assessment and due diligence can help in understanding the potential risks and implications associated with this betting scenario.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or betting advice. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve risks, and individuals should consider seeking advice from qualified professionals before making any betting decisions. The information provided is based on data available at the time of writing and may be subject to change.