Exploit College Basketball Spread Discrepancies (ROI: 22.3%)
Introduction
A recent analysis has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming college basketball game between the DePaul Blue Demons and the Loyola (MD) Greyhounds, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This opportunity involves exploiting differing odds offered by two bookmakers on the point spread market. This memo provides an objective examination of the data presented to assess the validity of this arbitrage bet in the context of sports betting strategies.
Analysis
Two separate bets have been identified:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Loyola (MD) Greyhounds +24.5 points
- Odds: +240 (Decimal Odds: 3.40)
- Stake: $359.59
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Standard Spreads
- Outcome: DePaul Blue Demons -24.5 points
- Odds: -110 (Decimal Odds: 1.91)
- Stake: $640.41
The total stake across both bets is $1,000. The key to this analysis is to assess whether these bets cover all possible outcomes in a way that ensures a return exceeding the total stake, which is the essence of arbitrage betting.
Discussion
To determine the potential outcomes, we evaluate the scenarios based on the point spread:
Scenario 1: DePaul wins by more than 24.5 points (25 points or more)
- Bet 2 Wins: The DePaul Blue Demons cover the spread of -24.5 points.
- Bet 1 Loses: The Loyola Greyhounds do not cover the spread of +24.5 points.
- Return from Bet 2: $640.41 x 1.91 = $1,223.18
- Profit: $1,223.18 - $1,000 = $223.18
Scenario 2: DePaul wins by less than 24.5 points, or Loyola wins the game
- Bet 1 Wins: The Loyola Greyhounds cover the spread of +24.5 points.
- Bet 2 Loses: The DePaul Blue Demons do not cover the spread of -24.5 points.
- Return from Bet 1: $359.59 x 3.40 = $1,222.61
- Profit: $1,222.61 - $1,000 = $222.61
In both scenarios, the returns exceed the total stake, suggesting that the bets cover all possible outcomes with a positive net return, a hallmark of arbitrage betting in sports betting markets.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that the identified bets create an arbitrage opportunity by taking advantage of differing point spreads and odds offered by FanDuel and BetMGM. By placing the specified stakes on the two opposing outcomes, the bettor stands to secure a profit regardless of the game's result. This is achieved through careful calculation of stakes and understanding of the odds in the arbitrage betting framework.
It is important to consider factors such as bookmaker terms, potential changes in odds, and betting limits, which could affect the execution of this strategy. Remaining objective and informed is crucial when engaging in sports betting activities.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their decisions and consult with a professional advisor if necessary.