DePaul vs Loyola Alternate Totals Arbitrage (ROI: 20.3%)
Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAA basketball game between the DePaul Blue Demons and the Loyola (MD) Greyhounds, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis aims to objectively examine the details of this potential arbitrage between two bookmakers: FanDuel and BetMGM.
Analysis
Event Details:
- Match: DePaul Blue Demons vs. Loyola (MD) Greyhounds
- Date and Time: December 28, 2024, at 2:01 PM
- Market: Alternate Totals (Over/Under 157.5 points)
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Bet Type: Over 157.5 points
- Odds: +550
- Stake: $185.07
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Bet Type: Under 157.5 points
- Odds: -210
- Stake: $814.93
Total Stakes: $185.07 (Bet 1) + $814.93 (Bet 2) = $1,000
Discussion
Understanding the Odds:
- Positive Odds (+550): Indicates potential profit relative to a $100 stake.
- Negative Odds (-210): Indicates the amount needed to stake to win $100.
Calculating Potential Returns:
Scenario 1: Total Points Over 157.5
- Bet 1 Wins:
- Profit: $185.07 x 5.50 = $1,017.89
- Total Return: $1,017.89 (Profit) + $185.07 (Stake) = $1,202.96
- Bet 2 Loses: Lose $814.93 stake.
- Net Profit: $1,202.96 (Return) - $1,000 (Total Stakes) = $202.96
Scenario 2: Total Points Under 157.5
- Bet 2 Wins:
- Profit: ($814.93 / 2.10) = $388.54
- Total Return: $388.54 (Profit) + $814.93 (Stake) = $1,203.47
- Bet 1 Loses: Lose $185.07 stake.
- Net Profit: $1,203.47 (Return) - $1,000 (Total Stakes) = $203.47
Implications:
- In both scenarios, a net profit of approximately $203 is realized regardless of the game's outcome.
- The slight difference in net profit between the two scenarios is due to the rounding in odds calculations.
Conclusion
This analysis indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market for the specified NCAA basketball game. By placing the outlined bets with the respective bookmakers, there appears to be a possibility of securing a profit regardless of the game's final score. It is essential to verify all details before taking any action, as odds and market conditions can change.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or an endorsement of any betting activities. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should consult with a professional advisor before engaging in any betting strategies.