Dayton vs La Salle Arbitrage Bet Insight (ROI: 148.7%)

Introduction

An arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified for the upcoming NCAAB game between the Dayton Flyers and the La Salle Explorers, scheduled for December 31, 2024. This potential arbitrage involves placing opposing bets on the moneyline market across two different sportsbooks, FanDuel and BetMGM, to potentially secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome.

Analysis

The proposed arbitrage strategy involves two bets:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
• Outcome: Dayton Flyers to win
• Odds (American): +172
• Stake: $914.25

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
• Outcome: La Salle Explorers to win
• Odds (American): +2800
• Stake: $85.75

Total Stake: $1,000

To assess the validity of this arbitrage opportunity, we will calculate the potential returns and profits for each outcome.

Converting American Odds to Decimal Odds:

For positive American odds, Decimal Odds = 1 + (American Odds / 100).

Dayton Flyers Odds (+172): Decimal Odds = 1 + (172 / 100) = 2.72

La Salle Explorers Odds (+2800): Decimal Odds = 1 + (2800 / 100) = 29.00

Calculating Potential Returns:

If Dayton Flyers Win:

• Return from Bet 1: $914.25 × 2.72 = $2,488.74
• Return from Bet 2: $0 (Bet loses)
• Total Return: $2,488.74
• Net Profit: $2,488.74 - $1,000 = $1,488.74

If La Salle Explorers Win:

• Return from Bet 2: $85.75 × 29.00 = $2,486.75
• Return from Bet 1: $0 (Bet loses)
• Total Return: $2,486.75
• Net Profit: $2,486.75 - $1,000 = $1,486.75

Discussion

At face value, this arbitrage opportunity appears profitable, with a net gain of approximately $1,487 regardless of the game's outcome. However, several factors must be considered to evaluate its validity.

Unusually High Odds: The odds of +2800 for the La Salle Explorers are significantly higher than typical moneyline odds in NCAAB matchups, suggesting a 3.45% implied probability of winning. This discrepancy raises concerns about potential mispricing or errors in the odds provided by BetMGM.

Market Consistency: It's essential to confirm that both bets are placed on the exact same market and event conditions. Any variations, such as differences in market definitions or specific bet terms, could invalidate the arbitrage.

Bookmaker Policies: Bookmakers often have clauses in their terms and conditions that address palpable errors. If the odds on La Salle are a result of a mistake, BetMGM may reserve the right to void the bet or adjust the odds, which would impact the arbitrage calculation.

Event Timing and Risks: The game is scheduled over a year from now, introducing risks such as scheduling changes, team roster alterations, or policy changes by the bookmakers. Long-term bets carry inherent uncertainties that could affect the outcome or validity of the wagers.

Legal and Regulatory Considerations: Engaging in arbitrage betting is legal in many jurisdictions but may be restricted in others. It's important to ensure compliance with all local laws and regulations related to sports betting.

Conclusion

While the initial calculations suggest a profitable arbitrage opportunity in the NCAAB game between the Dayton Flyers and the La Salle Explorers, several factors could affect its validity. The unusually high odds for La Salle raise questions about potential errors or mispricing. Additionally, the long time frame before the event introduces variables that could impact the bets. It's crucial to conduct thorough due diligence, confirm the accuracy of the odds, and understand the bookmakers' policies before proceeding.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Betting involves risk, and it's important to make informed decisions in accordance with applicable laws and regulations.