College Football Arbitrage: TCU vs Louisiana Point Spread Opportunity (ROI: 11.6%)
Introduction
A new arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the upcoming college football game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:25 PM. This analysis examines the potential for guaranteed profit through strategic bets on the point spread market offered by two different bookmakers.
Analysis
Two bookmakers, FanDuel and BetMGM, are offering differing odds on the game's point spread:
Bet 1
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Selection: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +31.5 points
- Odds: -140 (American Odds)
- Stake: $651.16
Bet 2
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Selection: TCU Horned Frogs -31.5 points
- Odds: +220 (American Odds)
- Stake: $348.84
The total stake across both bets is $1,000. The bets cover all possible outcomes of the point spread, creating an opportunity for arbitrage betting.
Discussion
Calculations for potential returns are as follows:
Bet 1 Potential Return:
- Decimal Odds: 1 + (100 / 140) = 1.7143
- Potential Return: $651.16 * 1.7143 = $1,117.71
- Potential Profit: $1,117.71 - $651.16 = $466.55
Bet 2 Potential Return:
- Decimal Odds: 1 + (220 / 100) = 3.2
- Potential Return: $348.84 * 3.2 = $1,116.29
- Potential Profit: $1,116.29 - $348.84 = $767.45
Possible Outcomes:
Outcome 1: TCU wins by more than 31.5 points.
- Bet 1 loses, resulting in a loss of $651.16.
- Bet 2 wins, providing a net profit of $767.45.
- Overall Profit: $767.45 - $651.16 = $116.29
Outcome 2: TCU wins by 31.5 points or fewer, or Louisiana wins.
- Bet 1 wins, providing a net profit of $466.55.
- Bet 2 loses, resulting in a loss of $348.84.
- Overall Profit: $466.55 - $348.84 = $117.71
The profit margin ranges between $116.29 and $117.71, regardless of the game's outcome. This margin exists due to the difference in odds and stake amounts between the two bets.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that by placing the specified bets with FanDuel and BetMGM, there is a potential for a guaranteed profit in the range of approximately $116.29 to $117.71. This opportunity arises from the discrepancy in odds offered by the two bookmakers on the same game and point spread. Careful consideration of the stake amounts and timely placement of the bets are essential to capitalize on this arbitrage betting opportunity.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Betting involves risk, and individuals should consult professional advisors and ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations before engaging in any betting activities.