College Football Arbitrage: Louisville vs. Washington (ROI: 56.0%)
(ROI: 56.0%) Arbitrage opportunity identified for the NCAAF game on December 31, 2024. Bet on Louisville Cardinals at +114 with FanDuel for $728.77 and Washington Huskies at +475 with BetMGM for $271.23. Both outcomes yield a potential profit of $559.57 from a $1,000 stake.
Introduction
A potential arbitrage opportunity has been identified for the upcoming NCAAF game between the Washington Huskies and the Louisville Cardinals, scheduled for December 31, 2024. This memo provides an objective analysis of the provided bets to assess their validity within the context of sports betting and arbitrage betting.
Analysis
Two separate bets have been placed on the Moneyline (Head-to-Head) market with different bookmakers:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Team: Louisville Cardinals
- Odds (American format): +114
- Stake: $728.77
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Team: Washington Huskies
- Odds (American format): +475
- Stake: $271.23
In college football, games cannot end in a tie, resulting in two possible outcomes: either the Louisville Cardinals win or the Washington Huskies win. To evaluate the potential payouts, the American odds are converted to decimal odds using the formula for positive American odds: Decimal Odds = (American Odds / 100) + 1.
Conversion to Decimal Odds:
- Louisville Cardinals: (+114 / 100) + 1 = 2.14
- Washington Huskies: (+475 / 100) + 1 = 5.75
Calculating Potential Payouts:
If the Louisville Cardinals win:
- Payout from Bet 1: $728.77 × 2.14 = $1,559.57
- Total Stakes: $728.77 + $271.23 = $1,000
- Potential Profit: $1,559.57 - $1,000 = $559.57
If the Washington Huskies win:
- Payout from Bet 2: $271.23 × 5.75 = $1,559.57
- Total Stakes: $728.77 + $271.23 = $1,000
- Potential Profit: $1,559.57 - $1,000 = $559.57
Discussion
The analysis indicates that the potential payouts are equal regardless of the game's outcome, each yielding $1,559.57 from a total stake of $1,000. This scenario aligns with the principles of arbitrage betting, where bets are placed on all possible outcomes to secure a profit.
To ensure the stakes are proportionally allocated for true arbitrage, the inverse of the decimal odds is calculated, and the stakes are adjusted accordingly.
Calculating Stake Proportions:
- Sum of Inverse Odds: (1 / 2.14) + (1 / 5.75) ≈ 0.4673 + 0.1739 = 0.6412
- Proportion for Louisville Cardinals: (1 / 2.14) / 0.6412 ≈ 0.7288
- Proportion for Washington Huskies: (1 / 5.75) / 0.6412 ≈ 0.2712
Allocating Stakes Based on Proportions:
- Stake on Louisville Cardinals: $1,000 × 0.7288 = $728.77
- Stake on Washington Huskies: $1,000 × 0.2712 = $271.23
The stakes provided match these calculated proportions, suggesting that the bets have been strategically allocated to cover all possible outcomes with consistent potential returns.
Conclusion
The equal potential payouts and proportional stake allocations indicate that the bets could represent a valid arbitrage opportunity within sports betting. By covering both possible outcomes with calculated stakes, the risk is distributed, and a consistent return is targeted. This approach exemplifies a fundamental arbitrage betting strategy aimed at minimizing risk while seeking profit.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should make decisions based on their own research and consideration. No guarantees are made regarding the outcomes of any bets or strategies discussed.