College Football Arbitrage: Colorado State vs. Miami (OH) Opportunity (ROI: 34.2%)
Arbitrage betting opportunity between Colorado State Rams and Miami (OH) RedHawks: Bet 1 with FanDuel at +25.5 points/odds +114, stake $627.18; Bet 2 with DraftKings at -25.5 points/odds +260, stake $372.82. Potential profit of approx. $342 due to odds discrepancy.
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming college football game between the Colorado State Rams and the Miami (OH) RedHawks on December 28, 2024, at 4:38 PM. This analysis aims to objectively examine the provided bets to determine the viability of this opportunity in the sports betting market.
Analysis
Two bets are proposed on the alternate spread market from two different bookmakers:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Team: Colorado State Rams
- Spread: +25.5 points
- Odds: +114
- Stake: $627.18
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Team: Miami (OH) RedHawks
- Spread: -25.5 points
- Odds: +260
- Stake: $372.82
These bets cover opposite outcomes of the same event with differing spreads and odds. The core concept of arbitrage betting is to exploit discrepancies in odds between bookmakers to secure a profit regardless of the event outcome.
Discussion
Understanding the Bets:
- Bet 1 wins if the Colorado State Rams win the game outright or lose by less than 26 points.
- Bet 2 wins if the Miami (OH) RedHawks win by 26 points or more.
These two outcomes are mutually exclusive and encompass all possible results of the game concerning the 25.5-point spread.
Calculating Potential Returns:
Total Stake: $627.18 (Bet 1) + $372.82 (Bet 2) = $1,000
Scenario 1 – Bet 1 Wins:
- Winnings from Bet 1: $627.18 x (114/100) = $715.98
- Return: $627.18 + $715.98 = $1,343.16
- Net Profit: $1,343.16 - $1,000 = $343.16
Scenario 2 – Bet 2 Wins:
- Winnings from Bet 2: $372.82 x (260/100) = $969.33
- Return: $372.82 + $969.33 = $1,342.15
- Net Profit: $1,342.15 - $1,000 = $342.15
Implications:
The calculations suggest a potential profit of approximately $342 in either scenario, indicating a seemingly risk-free arbitrage opportunity. This arises from the significant difference in the odds offered by the two bookmakers for the opposite sides of the same spread.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that placing these two bets could result in a guaranteed profit due to the discrepancy in odds between FanDuel and DraftKings. This kind of arbitrage betting opportunity is rare in the sports betting market, especially with reputable bookmakers and popular events.
However, it is crucial to consider factors such as bookmaker policies on arbitrage betting, potential errors in odds (palpable errors), and betting limits that may affect the ability to place these bets as described. Additionally, rapid changes in odds and market conditions can alter the viability of this opportunity.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to participate in any betting activities. Betting on sports involves risks, and individuals should ensure they understand these risks and comply with all applicable laws and regulations before engaging in any betting activities.