Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Bluff (ROI: 180.9%)
No risk-free arbitrage in Bulls vs. Bucks game. Potential profit if Bulls win: $1,809.15, but loss if Bucks win: -$872.31.
Introduction
A recent betting opportunity has emerged involving the upcoming NBA game between the Chicago Bulls and the Milwaukee Bucks. This memo provides an objective analysis of the potential for an arbitrage bet based on the provided betting data from two different bookmakers. This analysis is intended for those interested in sports betting and arbitrage betting.
Analysis
Event Details:
- Match: Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Date & Time: December 28, 2024, at 8:10 PM
- League: NBA
Betting Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Chicago Bulls to win
- Odds: +220 (American odds)
- Stake: $877.86
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Milwaukee Bucks to win
- Odds: -2200 (American odds)
- Stake: $122.14
To assess the potential arbitrage, the American odds are converted to decimal odds for clarity:
- Chicago Bulls: +220 → 3.20
- Milwaukee Bucks: -2200 → 1.0455
Calculating Potential Returns:
If the Chicago Bulls win:
- Return from Bet 1: $877.86 × 3.20 = $2,809.15
- Profit from Bet 1: $2,809.15 - $877.86 = $1,931.29
- Loss from Bet 2: $122.14 (stake lost)
- Net Profit: $1,931.29 - $122.14 = $1,809.15
If the Milwaukee Bucks win:
- Return from Bet 2: $122.14 × 1.0455 ≈ $127.69
- Profit from Bet 2: $127.69 - $122.14 = $5.55
- Loss from Bet 1: $877.86 (stake lost)
- Net Loss: $5.55 - $877.86 = -$872.31
Discussion
An arbitrage bet aims to secure a profit regardless of the outcome by exploiting discrepancies in odds between bookmakers. In this scenario, the potential outcomes are unbalanced:
- Profit if Bulls win: $1,809.15
- Loss if Bucks win: -$872.31
The implied probabilities based on decimal odds are:
- Bulls: (1 / 3.20) × 100 ≈ 31.25%
- Bucks: (1 / 1.0455) × 100 ≈ 95.65%
- Total: 31.25% + 95.65% = 126.90%
The sum exceeds 100%, indicating the presence of the bookmaker's margin (overround) rather than an arbitrage opportunity. This imbalance means that one outcome results in a significant profit while the other leads to a substantial loss.
Conclusion
The provided betting scenario does not represent a risk-free arbitrage opportunity. The potential for a significant loss exists if the Milwaukee Bucks win, which contradicts the fundamental principle of arbitrage betting that seeks to eliminate risk. The analysis shows that the bets are speculative and do not guarantee a profit regardless of the game's outcome.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their decisions and consult with a professional advisor if necessary.