Boston Celtics Betting Oddity: Alternate Points Arbitrage (ROI: 62.5%)
(ROI: 62.5%) Arbitrage bet involves Celtics scoring over/under 107.5 points. FanDuel under +220, DraftKings over +230. Bet $1000 total, potential $624 profit. Validate odds.
Introduction
A new potential arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market involving the Boston Celtics' alternate team total points at 107.5. This memo provides an objective analysis of this opportunity for bettors to consider.
Analysis
The proposed arbitrage involves placing two separate bets on the same game and market, specifically on whether the Boston Celtics will score over or under 107.5 points. The details of the bets are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Under 107.5 points
- Odds: +220 (Decimal Odds: 3.20)
- Stake: $507.69
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Over 107.5 points
- Odds: +230 (Decimal Odds: 3.30)
- Stake: $492.31
The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000.
Possible Outcomes and Net Profits
The possible outcomes are as follows, assuming that the Celtics cannot score exactly 107.5 points:
Scenario 1: Under 107.5 Points
- Bet 1 Wins: Returns $1,624.61
- Bet 2 Loses: Loses $492.31
- Net Profit: $1,624.61 - $1,000 = $624.61
Scenario 2: Over 107.5 Points
- Bet 2 Wins: Returns $1,624.62
- Bet 1 Loses: Loses $507.69
- Net Profit: $1,624.62 - $1,000 = $624.62
Discussion
Upon analyzing the odds, it appears that both bets have high positive odds (+220 and +230), suggesting that both outcomes are considered unlikely by the bookmakers. In a typical Over/Under market, one outcome is favored over the other, and the odds reflect this by having one outcome with positive odds and the other with negative odds.
The odds provided imply a guaranteed profit of over $600 regardless of the game's outcome, which is highly improbable in standard arbitrage betting strategies. Arbitrage opportunities usually offer small profit margins, typically less than 5% of the total stake, due to bookmakers' efforts to balance their books and avoid such opportunities.
These discrepancies suggest there may be errors in the data provided, such as misquoted odds or mismatched markets. It's essential to verify that both bets are indeed on the exact same market and that the odds are correctly quoted.
Conclusion
Based on the analysis, this does not appear to be a valid or risk-free arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market. Bettors should exercise caution, verify all betting information, and consider consulting reliable resources or professionals when evaluating potential arbitrage bets.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice or recommendations. Bettors should conduct their own due diligence before placing any bets and be aware of the risks involved in sports betting and arbitrage betting.