Atlanta Hawks First-Half Point Totals Arb Opportunity (ROI: 12.1%)

Introduction

A recent opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving the upcoming NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM. This memo provides an objective analysis of a potential arbitrage betting scenario focusing on the Atlanta Hawks' first-half point totals.

Analysis

The betting scenario involves two wagers placed on opposite outcomes related to the Atlanta Hawks' first-half performance:

Bet 1: Placed with DraftKings, betting on the Atlanta Hawks scoring over 61.5 points in the first half. The odds for this outcome are +400 (decimal odds of 5.00), with a stake of $224.14.

Bet 2: Placed with BetMGM, betting on the Atlanta Hawks scoring under 61.5 points in the first half. The odds for this outcome are -225 (decimal odds of 1.4444), with a stake of $775.86.

The total stake for both bets amounts to $1,000.00. By converting the American odds to decimal odds, we calculate the potential payouts:

• Bet 1 Potential Payout: $224.14 × 5.00 = $1,120.70
• Bet 2 Potential Payout: $775.86 × 1.4444 ≈ $1,120.70

Discussion

This betting strategy covers all possible outcomes of the Atlanta Hawks' first-half point totals:

• Outcome 1 (Over 61.5 Points): If the Hawks score 62 or more points, Bet 1 wins with a payout of $1,120.70, and Bet 2 loses its stake of $775.86. The net profit is calculated as $1,120.70 (payout) - $1,000.00 (total stake) = $120.70.
• Outcome 2 (Under 61.5 Points): If the Hawks score 61 or fewer points, Bet 2 wins with a payout of $1,120.70, and Bet 1 loses its stake of $224.14. The net profit is similarly $1,120.70 - $1,000.00 = $120.70.

This scenario appears to represent an arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market. By allocating stakes proportionally based on the odds offered by different bookmakers, the potential payouts are equalized, resulting in a consistent net profit regardless of the game's outcome.

Conclusion

Based on the calculations, this betting scenario suggests a potential arbitrage opportunity, offering a net profit of approximately $120.70 irrespective of whether the Atlanta Hawks score over or under 61.5 points in the first half. This situation arises due to the variance in odds provided by DraftKings and BetMGM, enabling bettors to leverage the discrepancies for a possible return.

Disclaimer

This analysis is presented for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting. Betting involves risks, and readers should carefully consider their circumstances and seek professional advice before participating in any betting activities.