Arbitrage Opportunity: Pelicans vs. Rockets Spread Betting
Introduction
A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified for the upcoming NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Houston Rockets on December 26, 2024, at 8:10 PM. This analysis will examine the details of the bets to determine if this constitutes a valid and risk-free arbitrage bet in the sports betting market.
Analysis
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: New Orleans Pelicans +18.5 points
- Odds: +230 (Decimal Odds: 3.30)
- Stake: $353.76
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Houston Rockets -18.5 points
- Odds: -124 (Decimal Odds: 1.8065)
- Stake: $646.24
These two bets cover opposing outcomes on the same game, utilizing a half-point spread to eliminate the possibility of a tie. The stakes are proportioned to ensure consistent potential returns.
Calculations:
Total Stake: $353.76 (Bet 1) + $646.24 (Bet 2) = $1,000
Scenario 1: Pelicans cover the +18.5 spread (win or lose by 18 points or fewer)
- Bet 1 Wins: $353.76 × 3.30 = $1,167.41
- Profit from Bet 1: $1,167.41 - $353.76 = $813.65
- Bet 2 Loses: -$646.24
- Net Profit: $813.65 - $646.24 = $167.41
Scenario 2: Rockets cover the -18.5 spread (win by 19 points or more)
- Bet 2 Wins: $646.24 × 1.8065 = $1,167.41
- Profit from Bet 2: $1,167.41 - $646.24 = $521.17
- Bet 1 Loses: -$353.76
- Net Profit: $521.17 - $353.76 = $167.41
In both scenarios, the net profit is consistent at $167.41 on a total stake of $1,000.
Discussion
The use of opposing bets on alternate spreads creates an opportunity in arbitrage betting to secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome. The half-point spread ensures there is no possibility of a push, meaning one bet will win while the other will lose.
Implied Probabilities:
- Bet 1 Odds (Decimal 3.30): 1 / 3.30 ≈ 30.30%
- Bet 2 Odds (Decimal 1.8065): 1 / 1.8065 ≈ 55.35%
- Total Implied Probability: ≈ 85.65%
A combined implied probability of less than 100% suggests a discrepancy in the odds offered by the bookmakers, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market.
Considerations:
- Ensure both bookmakers accept the stakes without limitations.
- Confirm that the rules regarding bet settlement are identical for both bookmakers.
- Be aware of any terms that may affect the validity of the bets.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that this is a potential arbitrage betting opportunity, offering a consistent net profit of $167.41 regardless of the game's outcome. By carefully evaluating the odds and stakes, bettors can make informed decisions in the arbitrage betting market.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Betting involves risks, and individuals should exercise caution and consider consulting with a professional before engaging in any form of sports betting or arbitrage betting.