Arbitrage Opportunity: Over/Under 126.5 Points (ROI: 9.2%)

Introduction

We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity involving two bets on the same event but with opposing outcomes. This analysis aims to evaluate the validity and potential profitability of this betting strategy.

Analysis

Bet Details:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Alternate Totals
• Outcome: Over 126.5 points
• Odds: +155
• Stake: $428.13

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Totals
• Outcome: Under 126.5 points
• Odds: -110
• Stake: $571.87

Converting Odds to Decimal Format:

American odds are converted to decimal odds for calculation purposes:

• Bet 1 (+155): Decimal Odds = 1 + (155 / 100) = 2.55
• Bet 2 (-110): Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 110) ≈ 1.9091

Calculating Potential Outcomes:

Scenario 1: Total Points Over 126.5

• Bet 1 Wins: Profit = $428.13 × (2.55 - 1) = $663.59
• Bet 2 Loses: Loss = -$571.87
• Net Profit: $663.59 - $571.87 = $91.72

Scenario 2: Total Points Under 126.5

• Bet 1 Loses: Loss = -$428.13
• Bet 2 Wins: Profit = $571.87 × (1.9091 - 1) = $519.88
• Net Profit: $519.88 - $428.13 = $91.75

Discussion

The calculations indicate that regardless of the game's outcome, there is a potential net profit of approximately $91.72 to $91.75. This is due to the difference in odds and the strategic distribution of stakes between the two bets.

Verification of Arbitrage Opportunity:

The sum of the inverse of the decimal odds is calculated to confirm the presence of an arbitrage opportunity:

(1 / 2.55) + (1 / 1.9091) ≈ 0.3922 + 0.5238 = 0.9160

Since 0.9160 is less than 1, this suggests a valid arbitrage exists.

Optimal Stake Ratio:

The stakes are proportionally distributed based on the inverse of the odds to ensure equal profit:

Stake Ratio (Bet 1 to Bet 2) = (1 / 1.9091) / (1 / 2.55) ≈ 1.333

The provided stakes reflect this ratio:

$571.87 / $428.13 ≈ 1.333

Conclusion

The analysis supports the potential for a risk-free profit through this arbitrage betting strategy. By placing opposing bets with carefully calculated stakes, the bettor may secure a profit regardless of the event's outcome. The sum of the inverse odds and the optimal stake ratio both validate the existence of this opportunity.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve financial risk. Individuals should conduct their own research and consider consulting with a professional before engaging in any betting activities.