Arbitrage Opportunity on Navy Midshipmen Points Totals

Introduction

An opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving an arbitrage situation on the Navy Midshipmen team total points over/under 23.5. This analysis examines the details of this scenario across two major sportsbooks, highlighting how differing odds can potentially create a profitable situation for bettors.

Analysis

The arbitrage opportunity involves placing opposing bets on the same market at two different sportsbooks:

Bet 1 (DraftKings):

• Market: Navy Midshipmen Team Total Over 23.5 points
• Odds: -105 (American odds)
• Stake: $518.21

Bet 2 (FanDuel):

• Market: Navy Midshipmen Team Total Under 23.5 points
• Odds: +110 (American odds)
• Stake: $481.79

To facilitate calculations, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:

• For odds of -105: Decimal odds = 1 + (100 ÷ 105) ≈ 1.9524
• For odds of +110: Decimal odds = 1 + (110 ÷ 100) = 2.10

The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.

Discussion

There are two possible outcomes based on the total points scored:

Outcome 1: Navy scores 24 points or more (Over 23.5 wins)

• Return from Bet 1: $518.21 × 1.9524 ≈ $1,011.74
• Profit from Bet 1: $1,011.74 - $518.21 = $493.53
• Loss from Bet 2: Stake of $481.79
• Net Profit: $493.53 - $481.79 = $11.74

Outcome 2: Navy scores 23 points or fewer (Under 23.5 wins)

• Return from Bet 2: $481.79 × 2.10 = $1,011.76
• Profit from Bet 2: $1,011.76 - $481.79 = $529.97
• Loss from Bet 1: Stake of $518.21
• Net Profit: $529.97 - $518.21 = $11.76

In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $11.75, illustrating how arbitrage betting can potentially yield a profit regardless of the event outcome.

Conclusion

This analysis demonstrates that discrepancies in betting odds between sportsbooks can create situations where an arbitrage opportunity exists. By carefully calculating stakes and understanding the odds, bettors may find opportunities where a profit is possible irrespective of the game's outcome. It is important to verify all details and remain aware of any changes in odds or terms, as such opportunities can be time-sensitive.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in betting activities. Betting involves risks, and individuals should consider their personal circumstances before participating.