Arbitrage Opportunity: New Mexico Lobos Team Total (ROI: 10.2%)
Introduction
This memo provides an analysis of a recently identified sports betting opportunity involving the NCAA Men's Basketball game between the Colorado State Rams and the New Mexico Lobos scheduled for December 28, 2024. The focus is on a potential arbitrage betting scenario in the alternate team totals market, specifically related to the New Mexico Lobos scoring over or under 77.5 points.
Analysis
Two bets from different bookmakers are considered:
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Over 77.5 points for New Mexico Lobos
Odds: +200 (Decimal Odds: 3.00)
Stake: $367.19
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: Under 77.5 points for New Mexico Lobos
Odds: -135 (Decimal Odds: 1.7407)
Stake: $632.81
The total amount wagered is $1,000 ($367.19 + $632.81).
Calculations for potential outcomes:
Outcome A: New Mexico Lobos score over 77.5 points (78 or more points)
Bet 1 wins: Payout = $367.19 x 3.00 = $1,101.57
Profit from Bet 1 = $1,101.57 - $367.19 = $734.38
Bet 2 loses: Loss = -$632.81
Total Profit = $734.38 - $632.81 = $101.57
Outcome B: New Mexico Lobos score under 77.5 points (77 or fewer points)
Bet 2 wins: Payout = $632.81 x 1.7407 ≈ $1,101.57
Profit from Bet 2 = $1,101.57 - $632.81 = $468.76
Bet 1 loses: Loss = -$367.19
Total Profit = $468.76 - $367.19 = $101.57
In both scenarios, the calculated profit is $101.57.
Discussion
The analysis indicates that, based on the provided odds and stakes, there is a possibility to achieve a positive return regardless of the game's outcome. The calculations show a consistent profit in both scenarios, suggesting an arbitrage opportunity. Factors such as bookmaker rules, market conditions, odds fluctuations, and bet acceptance policies could influence the actual results.
Conclusion
The calculated data suggests a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the alternate team totals market for the upcoming NCAA Men's Basketball game. It is important to thoroughly verify all the details, including bookmaker terms, market availability, and any possible risks associated with long-term bets.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their decisions and consult with professionals if necessary.