Arbitrage Opportunity in Commanders vs Falcons Match
Introduction
An analysis has been conducted on a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NFL game between the Washington Commanders and the Atlanta Falcons scheduled for December 29, 2024, at 8:21 PM. This examination aims to objectively assess the data provided regarding bets from two different bookmakers to determine the validity of the arbitrage betting scenario.
Analysis
Event Details:
- Teams: Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
- League: NFL
- Event Start: December 29, 2024, at 8:21 PM
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Moneyline
- Outcome: Washington Commanders to win
- Odds: -142 (American odds)
- Stake: $592.70
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline
- Outcome: Atlanta Falcons to win
- Odds: +148 (American odds)
- Stake: $407.30
Conversion of Odds to Decimal Format:
- Odds of -142 convert to decimal odds of approximately 1.7042.
- Odds of +148 convert to decimal odds of approximately 2.4800.
Calculations:
Potential Payouts:
- Bet 1 Potential Payout: $592.70 × 1.7042 ≈ $1,010.02
- Bet 2 Potential Payout: $407.30 × 2.4800 ≈ $1,010.10
Total Stakes: $592.70 + $407.30 = $1,000.00
Potential Profits:
- If the Washington Commanders win: $1,010.02 - $1,000.00 = $10.02
- If the Atlanta Falcons win: $1,010.10 - $1,000.00 = $10.10
Implied Probabilities:
- Washington Commanders: 142 / (142 + 100) ≈ 58.68%
- Atlanta Falcons: 100 / (148 + 100) ≈ 40.32%
- Total Implied Probability: 58.68% + 40.32% = 99%
Discussion
The analysis indicates that the total implied probability of both outcomes is 99%, which is less than 100%. This suggests the presence of an arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for this event. The calculated potential payouts are nearly identical, ensuring that regardless of the game's outcome, the total returns exceed the total stakes placed.
The potential profits, approximately $10.02 or $10.10 depending on the outcome, represent a return on investment that is independent of the game's result. This scenario is indicative of an arbitrage betting opportunity, where discrepancies in odds between bookmakers can be leveraged to secure a profit.
It is essential to consider factors that may affect this opportunity:
- Market Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly; timely action is crucial.
- Betting Limits: Bookmakers may have stake limits that affect the ability to place the required bets.
- Terms and Conditions: Differences in bookmaker policies could impact bet settlement.
Conclusion
The data analyzed suggests that a valid arbitrage betting opportunity exists for the NFL game between the Washington Commanders and the Atlanta Falcons. By placing calculated bets on both outcomes with different bookmakers, the potential for a risk-free profit arises due to the variation in odds offered. This objective analysis highlights how discrepancies in sports betting markets can present opportunities for arbitrage betting.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution when placing bets. No guarantees are made regarding the outcomes or profits discussed in this analysis.