Arbitrage Insight: Memphis vs. Ole Miss NCAA Basketball (ROI: 19.3%)
Introduction
A newly identified arbitrage betting opportunity has emerged for the upcoming NCAA Men's Basketball (NCAAB) game between the Memphis Tigers and the Ole Miss Rebels, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:00 PM. This analysis examines the potential of this opportunity by evaluating the provided betting information from two different bookmakers.
Event Details
Event Start: December 28, 2024, at 2:00 PM
Home Team: Memphis Tigers
Away Team: Ole Miss Rebels
League: NCAAB (NCAA Men's Basketball)
Bets Placed
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Moneyline (Winner of the game)
Outcome: Ole Miss Rebels to win
Odds: +320 (American odds)
Stake: $284.09
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetRivers
Market: Moneyline (Winner of the game)
Outcome: Memphis Tigers to win
Odds: -150 (American odds)
Stake: $715.91
Analysis
The arbitrage opportunity arises from the different odds offered by FanDuel and BetRivers for the same event. By placing calculated stakes on both possible outcomes, there is potential to secure a return regardless of the game's result.
Converting Odds:
To simplify calculations, American odds are converted to decimal odds:
Ole Miss Rebels (+320):
Decimal Odds = (American Odds / 100) + 1 = (320 / 100) + 1 = 4.20
Memphis Tigers (-150):
Decimal Odds = (100 / |American Odds|) + 1 = (100 / 150) + 1 ≈ 1.6667
Calculating Potential Returns:
If Memphis Tigers win:
Return from BetRivers = Stake × Decimal Odds = $715.91 × 1.6667 ≈ $1,193.16
Loss from FanDuel = Stake = $284.09
Total Profit = Return - Total Stakes = $1,193.16 - ($715.91 + $284.09) = $193.16
If Ole Miss Rebels win:
Return from FanDuel = Stake × Decimal Odds = $284.09 × 4.20 ≈ $1,193.18
Loss from BetRivers = Stake = $715.91
Total Profit = Return - Total Stakes = $1,193.18 - ($284.09 + $715.91) = $193.18
The potential profit in both scenarios is approximately $193 on a total stake of $1,000, representing a return of about 19.3%.
Discussion
The analysis indicates that, based on the current odds and stakes, there is a possibility to achieve a profit regardless of the game's outcome. This stems from the discrepancy in odds between the two bookmakers. However, several factors should be considered:
Market Fluctuations: Odds are subject to change. The arbitrage opportunity relies on both bets being placed before any adjustments occur.
Betting Limits: Bookmakers may impose limits on the amount that can be wagered, which could affect the ability to place the desired stakes.
Event Changes: The game is scheduled over a year in advance. Potential changes such as event postponement, cancellation, or significant team alterations could impact the validity of the bets.
Bookmaker Policies: It's important to review the terms and conditions of both FanDuel and BetRivers, particularly concerning policies on arbitrage betting and how they handle event changes.
Financial Considerations: Transaction fees, taxes, and currency conversions may affect the net profit and should be accounted for in the overall evaluation.
Conclusion
The presented betting scenario shows a potential arbitrage opportunity arising from the differing odds offered by two bookmakers. Thoroughly analyzing all aspects, including potential risks and external factors, is essential before making any decisions. Considering the uncertainties involved, especially with the event being over a year away, careful planning and due diligence are crucial.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should ensure they fully understand these risks and comply with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction.