Arbitrage Bet Opportunity: Syracuse vs. Bucknell (ROI: 13.5%)
Introduction
In the dynamic world of sports betting, occasional opportunities arise where bettors can potentially secure a profit regardless of the event's outcome. One such scenario has been identified in the upcoming NCAAB game between the Syracuse Orange and the Bucknell Bison, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:00 PM. This memo provides an objective analysis of a potential arbitrage betting opportunity involving two different bookmakers.
Analysis
Two separate bets have been identified on the Alternate Total Points market for this game:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Total Points
- Bet: Under 149.5 points
- Odds: +200
- Stake: $378.42
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Alternate Total Points
- Bet: Over 149.5 points
- Odds: -121
- Stake: $621.58
To determine if this constitutes a valid arbitrage opportunity, we'll calculate the potential returns and profits for each bet.
Calculations
Understanding the Odds:
- Positive Odds (+): Indicates the profit on a $100 stake.
- Negative Odds (-): Indicates the stake required to profit $100.
Bet 1 (Under 149.5 at +200 Odds):
- Potential Profit: (200 / 100) * $378.42 = $756.84
- Total Return: $378.42 + $756.84 = $1,135.26
Bet 2 (Over 149.5 at -121 Odds):
- Potential Profit: ($621.58 / 121) * 100 = $513.69
- Total Return: $621.58 + $513.69 = $1,135.27
Total Stakes: $378.42 + $621.58 = $1,000
Potential Net Profit: Approximately $135.26 ($1,135.26 - $1,000)
Discussion
On paper, this scenario offers a potential profit of around $135.26, irrespective of the game's total points outcome. Both bets effectively cover all possible results for the total points scored:
Scenario 1: Total Points Under 149.5
- Bet 1 wins; Bet 2 loses.
- Net Profit: $1,135.26 - $1,000 = $135.26
Scenario 2: Total Points Over 149.5
- Bet 2 wins; Bet 1 loses.
- Net Profit: $1,135.27 - $1,000 = $135.27
However, several factors should be considered:
Market Consistency: It's essential to verify that both bookmakers define the Alternate Total Points market identically, including rules about overtime and how total points are calculated.
Event Details: Given the event is over a year away, confirm the game date and ensure that both bets apply to the same event to avoid any discrepancies.
Bookmaker Policies: Review terms and conditions related to bet cancellations, voided bets, and potential odds errors. Policies on overtime inclusion, bet limits, and payout caps can significantly impact the outcome.
Odds Fluctuation: Sports betting odds can change rapidly. The identified arbitrage opportunity may no longer exist if the odds shift before both bets are placed and confirmed.
Operational Risks: Factors such as bet acceptance, stake limitations, and potential account restrictions should be taken into account. Bookmakers may have measures against arbitrage betting, which could affect account status.
Conclusion
While the calculated figures suggest a potential arbitrage opportunity with a possible profit of approximately $135.26, it's crucial to approach this with caution. Ensuring that all market terms, event details, and bookmaker policies align is essential for minimizing risk. The practical considerations and potential operational challenges highlight that such opportunities, while mathematically sound, may carry inherent uncertainties in real-world application.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activity. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution. We do not guarantee the accuracy of this information and are not responsible for any actions taken based on this analysis.