Arbitrage Bet Opportunity: NCAAF Tar Heels vs Huskies
Introduction
An arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the upcoming NCAAF (College Football) game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 11:06 am. This opportunity arises in the Alternate Totals market for the total points over/under 61.5.
Analysis
The proposed strategy involves placing two opposing bets on the same market with different bookmakers to capitalize on the variation in odds. The bet details are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Over 61.5 points
- Odds: +130
- Stake: $453.56
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Under 61.5 points
- Odds: -110
- Stake: $546.44
The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000.
Calculating Potential Returns:
Bet 1 Potential Return (Over 61.5 at +130 odds):
Potential Profit = Stake × (Odds/100) = $453.56 × 1.30 = $589.63
Total Return = Stake + Potential Profit = $453.56 + $589.63 = $1,043.19
Bet 2 Potential Return (Under 61.5 at -110 odds):
Potential Profit = Stake × (100/|Odds|) = $546.44 × (100/110) ≈ $546.44 × 0.9091 = $496.76
Total Return = Stake + Potential Profit = $546.44 + $496.76 = $1,043.19
Both bets result in the same total return of $1,043.19 in their respective winning scenarios.
Discussion
Since half-points are not possible in football scoring, the total points in the game will either be over or under 61.5. This creates two possible outcomes:
Scenario 1: Total Points Over 61.5
Bet 1 wins, yielding a return of $1,043.19. Bet 2 loses, resulting in a loss of the $546.44 stake. The net profit is $1,043.19 - $1,000 = $43.19.
Scenario 2: Total Points Under 61.5
Bet 2 wins, yielding a return of $1,043.19. Bet 1 loses, resulting in a loss of the $453.56 stake. The net profit is $1,043.19 - $1,000 = $43.19.
In both scenarios, the net profit is $43.19, which represents a 4.32% return on the total stake.
Considerations: While this arbitrage betting opportunity appears to offer a risk-free profit, several factors should be considered:
- Odds Fluctuation: Odds may change rapidly. Both bets need to be placed promptly to secure the stated odds.
- Stake Limits: Bookmakers may impose limits on the amount that can be wagered, affecting the ability to place the calculated stakes.
- Bet Acceptance: There is a possibility that a bookmaker may reject or limit a bet after it is placed.
- Terms and Conditions: Different bookmakers have varying rules regarding market settlement, cancellations, and voided bets. It's important to review these policies thoroughly.
- Account Restrictions: Engaging in arbitrage betting may lead to account monitoring or restrictions by bookmakers.
Conclusion
The analysis demonstrates that by strategically placing calculated stakes on opposing outcomes in the total points market, there is potential to secure a net profit of $43.19 on a $1,000 investment, yielding a 4.32% return. This is achieved through exploiting differences in odds offered by FanDuel and BetMGM. However, it is crucial to consider the variables and risks associated with sports betting and to ensure that all actions comply with bookmaker agreements and legal regulations.
Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or an endorsement of any betting activity. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should exercise caution and consult professional advice where appropriate.