Arbitrage Bet on Huskies vs Cardinals (ROI: 67.7%)
(ROI: 67.7%) Arbitrage bet opportunity in NCAAF: Louisville -7.5 at +390 (FanDuel), Washington +7.5 at +155 (DraftKings) on Dec 31, 2024. Net profit possible.
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming sports betting market for the NCAAF game between the Washington Huskies and the Louisville Cardinals scheduled for December 31, 2024. This analysis aims to objectively examine the details of the bets from two different bookmakers to determine the viability of this opportunity.
Analysis
Bet Details:
Event: Washington Huskies vs. Louisville Cardinals
Date: December 31, 2024
League: NCAAF
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Spreads
Outcome: Louisville Cardinals -7.5
Odds: +390
Stake: $342.28
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Market: Alternate Spreads
Outcome: Washington Huskies +7.5
Odds: +155
Stake: $657.72
The two bets cover all possible outcomes of the game concerning the point spread. By placing these bets, we can potentially secure a profit regardless of the game's result.
Discussion
Possible Outcomes:
1. Louisville wins by 8 or more points: Bet 1 wins, Bet 2 loses.
2. Washington wins or loses by 7 points or fewer: Bet 2 wins, Bet 1 loses.
Calculating Returns:
Bet 1 Potential Return:
Odds +390 translate to a decimal odd of 4.90.
Potential Payout = $342.28 x 4.90 = $1,677.17
Net Profit = $1,677.17 - Total Stake ($1,000) = $677.17
Bet 2 Potential Return:
Odds +155 translate to a decimal odd of 2.55.
Potential Payout = $657.72 x 2.55 = $1,676.19
Net Profit = $1,676.19 - Total Stake ($1,000) = $676.19
Implied Probabilities:
Bet 1 Implied Probability = 100 / (390 + 100) = 20.41%
Bet 2 Implied Probability = 100 / (155 + 100) = 39.22%
Total Implied Probability = 20.41% + 39.22% = 59.63%
Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, this indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity.
Conclusion
The analysis suggests that by placing these two bets, there is a potential for a net profit of approximately $676 on a total stake of $1,000, representing a significant return on investment. The bets cover all possible outcomes related to the point spread, and the implied probabilities support the existence of an arbitrage opportunity. However, it is important to consider factors such as odds fluctuations, bookmaker limitations, and terms and conditions.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation to engage in arbitrage betting. Always ensure compliance with local laws and regulations regarding sports betting and consult with a professional advisor if necessary.