Arbitrage Bet Alert: Portland vs Utah Q2 Showdown
Introduction
A recent opportunity has emerged in the sports betting arena involving an arbitrage betting scenario for the upcoming NBA game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Utah Jazz on December 26, 2024. The focus is on the outcome of the second quarter (h2h_q2), with differing odds provided by BetRivers and FanDuel.
Analysis
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: h2h_q2 (Second Quarter Moneyline)
- Outcome: Portland Trail Blazers to win Q2
- Odds: +700
- Stake: $131.22
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: h2h_q2 (Second Quarter Moneyline)
- Outcome: Utah Jazz to win Q2
- Odds: -480
- Stake: $868.78
Total Stake: $1,000 ($131.22 + $868.78)
Potential Outcomes:
Scenario 1: Portland Trail Blazers Win Q2
- Bet 1 Wins: $131.22 x 7.00 = $918.54 profit
- Return: $131.22 (stake) + $918.54 = $1,049.76
- Bet 2 Loses: -$868.78
- Net Profit: $1,049.76 - $1,000 = $49.76
Scenario 2: Utah Jazz Win Q2
- Bet 2 Wins: $868.78 x (100/480) = $181.83 profit
- Return: $868.78 (stake) + $181.83 = $1,050.61
- Bet 1 Loses: -$131.22
- Net Profit: $1,050.61 - $1,000 = $50.61
Discussion
Risk of a Tie: One critical factor in this arbitrage betting scenario is the possibility of the second quarter ending in a tie. NBA quarters can and do end in ties, which can impact the outcomes based on the bookmakers' rules.
Market Types and Rules: It's important to determine whether both bets are placed on the same market type—either 2-way or 3-way markets. In a 2-way market, a tie may result in a push, refunding the stake. In a 3-way market, a tie is a separate outcome, and bets on a team winning would lose if a tie occurs.
Potential Risks:
- If both bets are on 3-way markets and a tie occurs, both bets could lose, resulting in a total loss of $1,000.
- If one bookmaker treats a tie as a push and the other doesn't, there could be an unrecovered loss of the stake from the losing bet.
Verification Needed: Clarifying the specific rules of both BetRivers and FanDuel regarding ties in the h2h_q2 market is essential to accurately assess the risk.
Conclusion
The apparent opportunity in this arbitrage bet suggests a potential profit of approximately $50 regardless of which team wins the second quarter. However, the risk introduced by the possibility of a tie necessitates a careful examination of the bookmakers' rules and market types.
Without confirmation that both bets are on identical market types and that ties are handled consistently (ideally resulting in a push), this bet may not be risk-free. Understanding these nuances is crucial before proceeding with any wagering.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. No guarantees are made regarding the outcome of any bets or wagers. Please engage in sports betting responsibly and be aware of the risks involved.