Arbitrage Alert: UCLA vs Gonzaga December 2024 (ROI: 10.0%)
Introduction
An analysis has identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming National Collegiate Athletic Association Basketball (NCAAB) game between the UCLA Bruins and the Gonzaga Bulldogs, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This opportunity involves placing bets on different outcomes across two bookmakers, possibly leading to a risk-free profit. The following is a detailed examination of the data to assess the validity of this potential arbitrage in the context of sports betting.
Analysis of the Betting Data
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Head-to-Head (H2H)
- Outcome: UCLA Bruins to win
- Odds: -148
- Stake: $656.32
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Head-to-Head (H2H)
- Outcome: Gonzaga Bulldogs to win
- Odds: +220
- Stake: $343.68
Total Stake: $1,000
Conversion of American Odds to Decimal Odds:
- For negative odds (favorite): Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / |-Odds|)
- For positive odds (underdog): Decimal Odds = 1 + (Odds / 100)
- UCLA Bruins: Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 148) ≈ 1.6757
- Gonzaga Bulldogs: Decimal Odds = 1 + (220 / 100) = 3.20
Calculation of Implied Probabilities:
- Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
- UCLA Bruins: 1 / 1.6757 ≈ 59.62%
- Gonzaga Bulldogs: 1 / 3.20 = 31.25%
Total Implied Probability: 59.62% + 31.25% = 90.87%
The total implied probability is less than 100%, suggesting a potential arbitrage opportunity in the context of arbitrage betting.
Discussion of Potential Outcomes
Potential Payouts:
- If the UCLA Bruins win:
- Payout: $656.32 * 1.6757 ≈ $1,100
- Profit: $1,100 - $1,000 = $100
- If the Gonzaga Bulldogs win:
- Payout: $343.68 * 3.20 = $1,099.78
- Profit: $1,099.78 - $1,000 ≈ $99.78
In both scenarios, there appears to be a profit of approximately $100, which is indicative of an arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.
Considerations and Risks:
- Event Date Validity: The game is scheduled for December 28, 2024. Given that sports schedules can change, it's important to verify the official scheduling of this event to ensure the bets are valid.
- Market Consistency: Both bets are placed on the Head-to-Head market. It's crucial to confirm that both bookmakers define this market identically to avoid discrepancies.
- Bookmaker Terms: Reviewing the terms and conditions of both bookmakers can help identify any clauses that might affect the settlement of these bets, such as voiding policies or handling of event cancellations.
- Financial Implications: The total stake of $1,000 will be tied up until the event concludes, which involves opportunity costs that should be considered.
Conclusion
While the analysis suggests a potential arbitrage opportunity with an expected profit of around $100, several factors need careful consideration. Verifying the event's official schedule, ensuring market definitions align across bookmakers, and reviewing all relevant terms and conditions are essential steps. Additionally, understanding the financial impact of tying up capital until the event date is important for informed decision-making in sports betting.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activity. Sports betting involves risks, and individuals should conduct their own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any decisions.