By René Hunt in NHL — 28 Dec 2024

Arbitrage Alert: Panthers vs. Canadiens Period 3 Goals (ROI: 14.3%)

Introduction

We have identified a recent betting opportunity in the upcoming NHL game between the Florida Panthers and the Montréal Canadiens scheduled for December 28, 2024. The focus is on the total goals scored in the third period (Period 3), with differing odds offered by two bookmakers, potentially presenting an arbitrage betting opportunity.

Analysis

Two bets have been observed:

Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Total Goals in Period 3 (Totals_P3)
- Bet Type: Over 1.5 Goals
- Odds: +185
- Stake: $401.15

Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Total Goals in Period 3 (Totals_P3)
- Bet Type: Under 1.5 Goals
- Odds: -110
- Stake: $598.85

The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.

To evaluate the potential outcomes, we'll calculate the returns for both scenarios: either over 1.5 goals or under 1.5 goals scored in Period 3.

Potential Outcomes

Scenario 1: Under 1.5 Goals in Period 3

- Bet 1 (Over 1.5 Goals at FanDuel): This bet would lose, resulting in a loss of $401.15.
- Bet 2 (Under 1.5 Goals at DraftKings): This bet would win. Using the American odds format, the profit is calculated as follows:
  Profit = (Stake / Odds) * 100
  Profit = ($598.85 / 110) * 100 ≈ $544.41
  Total Return = Stake + Profit ≈ $598.85 + $544.41 ≈ $1,143.26
- Net Profit: Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,143.26 - $1,000 = $143.26

Scenario 2: Over 1.5 Goals in Period 3

- Bet 1 (Over 1.5 Goals at FanDuel): This bet would win. The profit is calculated as:
  Profit = (Odds / 100) * Stake
  Profit = (185 / 100) * $401.15 ≈ $742.13
  Total Return = Stake + Profit ≈ $401.15 + $742.13 ≈ $1,143.28
- Bet 2 (Under 1.5 Goals at DraftKings): This bet would lose, resulting in a loss of $598.85.
- Net Profit: Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,143.28 - $1,000 = $143.28

In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $143, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity.

Discussion

The discrepancy in odds between FanDuel and DraftKings for the same market allows for coverage of all possible outcomes with a guaranteed net profit based on the calculations. This situation arises due to the positive odds on the over 1.5 goals market at one bookmaker and the favorable odds on the under 1.5 goals market at the other.

Key Considerations:

Market Consistency: It's crucial that both bets align exactly in terms of market parameters. Both bets are on the total goals in Period 3, but it's important to confirm that both bookmakers define this market identically, including whether overtime is included.
Terms and Conditions: Bookmakers may have different rules regarding voided bets, overtime inclusion, and how they handle cancellations or postponements. Reviewing the specific terms for period betting at both FanDuel and DraftKings is essential.
Odds Confirmation: Odds can fluctuate rapidly. Ensuring that both bets are placed simultaneously and at the specified odds is necessary to maintain the calculated profit margin.
Stake Limits: Bookmakers may have maximum stake limits or restrictions on certain markets. Verifying that the intended stakes are accepted without adjustments is important.
Regulatory Compliance: Engaging in arbitrage betting should be in accordance with local laws and regulations governing sports betting activities.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that, based on the provided odds and stakes, there exists a potential arbitrage betting opportunity on the total goals market for Period 3 of the Florida Panthers vs. Montréal Canadiens game. By covering both possible outcomes with the calculated stakes, a net profit of approximately $143 could be realized regardless of the game result in that period.

It is important to approach this opportunity with due diligence, ensuring all bets comply with bookmaker terms and conditions, and to be aware of any potential risks such as market discrepancies or rule differences that could affect the outcome.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Betting involves risk, and individuals should exercise caution and consult professional advice where appropriate. Always ensure compliance with local laws and regulations related to sports betting.