Arbitrage Alert: North Carolina vs UConn 2024
Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the upcoming NCAAF game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies, scheduled for December 28, 2024. Arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers to potentially secure a profit regardless of the result. This memo provides an analysis of the provided bets to determine whether they represent a valid arbitrage betting opportunity.
Analysis
Event Details
- Match: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. UConn Huskies
- Date: December 28, 2024
- Market: Alternate Point Spreads
Bet Details
Bet 1
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Selection: North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5
- Odds: +176 (American odds)
- Stake: $383.14
Bet 2
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Selection: UConn Huskies -7.5
- Odds: -140 (American odds)
- Stake: $616.86
Calculations
1. Converting Odds to Decimal Format
- Bet 1 (+176): Decimal Odds = (176 / 100) + 1 = 2.76
- Bet 2 (-140): Decimal Odds = (100 / 140) + 1 ≈ 1.714
2. Calculating Potential Returns
- Bet 1: $383.14 × 2.76 ≈ $1,057.47
- Bet 2: $616.86 × 1.714 ≈ $1,057.47
3. Total Stakes and Expected Return
- Total Stakes: $383.14 + $616.86 = $1,000
- Potential Return: $1,057.47
- Potential Profit: $1,057.47 - $1,000 = $57.47
Discussion
The calculations suggest that by placing the specified bets, there appears to be an opportunity to achieve a profit of approximately $57.47 regardless of the game's outcome. This is due to the discrepancy in odds offered by different bookmakers on the alternate point spread market.
Outcome Scenarios
- Scenario 1: If the North Carolina Tar Heels win or lose by fewer than 8 points, Bet 1 wins, and Bet 2 loses. The net potential profit would be approximately $57.47.
- Scenario 2: If the UConn Huskies win by 8 points or more, Bet 2 wins, and Bet 1 loses. The net potential profit would again be approximately $57.47.
Considerations
- Line Movements: Odds and point spreads can change. It is important to verify the current odds at the time of placing the bets.
- Betting Limits: Bookmakers may have stake limits that could affect the ability to place the desired bets.
- Terms and Conditions: Understanding each bookmaker's rules is essential, especially regarding cancellations or voided bets.
- Simultaneous Betting: Placing both bets simultaneously may help to mitigate the risk of odds changing.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that the provided bets may represent an arbitrage betting opportunity in the NCAAF game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies. By carefully considering the factors outlined and ensuring all conditions are met, there is potential for a profit irrespective of the game's outcome.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice. Betting involves risk, and there are no guarantees of profit. Always ensure compliance with local laws and regulations, and consult with a professional before engaging in any betting activities.