Arbitrage Alert: Navy vs. Oklahoma Spread

Introduction

A new potential arbitrage betting opportunity has emerged in the sports betting landscape for the upcoming game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners on December 27, 2024. This opportunity involves placing bets on alternate spreads offered by two different bookmakers, FanDuel and BetMGM.

Analysis

The bets under consideration are as follows:

Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Alternate Spreads
Outcome: Navy Midshipmen +13.5
Odds: +128
Stake: $455.73

Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: Alternate Spreads
Outcome: Oklahoma Sooners -13.5
Odds: -110
Stake: $544.27

These two bets cover all possible outcomes related to the specified point spread, where either the Navy Midshipmen lose by 13 points or fewer (including winning the game), or the Oklahoma Sooners win by 14 points or more.

Calculating Potential Returns:

First, convert the American odds to decimal odds:

• Bet 1 (+128 odds): Decimal Odds = (128/100) + 1 = 2.28
• Bet 2 (-110 odds): Decimal Odds = (100/110) + 1 ≈ 1.9091

The total stake across both bets is $1,000 ($455.73 on Bet 1 and $544.27 on Bet 2).

Scenario 1: Navy Midshipmen +13.5 covers

• Return from Bet 1: $455.73 x 2.28 ≈ $1,039.06
• Loss from Bet 2: -$544.27
• Net Profit: $1,039.06 - $1,000 = $39.06

Scenario 2: Oklahoma Sooners -13.5 covers

• Return from Bet 2: $544.27 x 1.9091 ≈ $1,039.07
• Loss from Bet 1: -$455.73
• Net Profit: $1,039.07 - $1,000 = $39.07

In both scenarios, there is a potential net profit of approximately $39.

Discussion

This situation highlights a possible arbitrage betting opportunity within sports betting, arising from differing odds offered by two bookmakers. By placing calculated stakes on both sides of the alternate point spread, bettors may be able to mitigate risk and potentially secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome. It's essential to consider the following factors:

• Odds Fluctuations: Betting odds can change rapidly. Placing both bets simultaneously is crucial to lock in the presented odds.
• Betting Limits: Bookmakers may have limits on how much can be wagered on certain markets, which could affect the ability to place the desired stakes.
• Bookmaker Policies: Terms and conditions, such as payout limits or rules regarding spread betting, may impact the bets.
• Event Timing: Since the event is over a year away, unforeseen circumstances like game rescheduling or cancellations could affect the bets.
• Legal Considerations: Betting regulations vary by jurisdiction. Ensuring compliance with local laws is important.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that the presented betting scenario may offer a potential arbitrage opportunity due to the discrepancy in odds between FanDuel and BetMGM for the game's alternate spread. By thoroughly evaluating the calculations and considering all relevant factors, individuals interested in sports betting can assess whether this opportunity aligns with their betting strategies and risk management practices.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should conduct their own research and consult with a professional before making any betting decisions.