Arbitrage Alert: Maryland Basketball Bet (ROI: 14.0%)
Introduction
A recent sports betting opportunity has emerged involving the NCAA Men's Basketball game between the Maryland Terrapins and the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 12:01 PM. This potential arbitrage situation involves placing opposing bets on alternate spreads at two different sportsbooks. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the data provided.
Analysis
Two bets have been identified that, when combined, may present an arbitrage opportunity:
Bet 1:
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Maryland Terrapins -23.5
- Odds: +240
- Stake: $335.20
Bet 2:
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks +23.5
- Odds: -140
- Stake: $664.80
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000. The objective is to determine whether these bets guarantee a profit regardless of the game's outcome.
Discussion
Possible Game Outcomes:
1. Maryland Terrapins win by 24 or more points: In this scenario, Bet 1 wins, and Bet 2 loses.
2. Maryland Terrapins win by 23 or fewer points, or Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks win: Here, Bet 1 loses, and Bet 2 wins.
Calculating Potential Payouts:
Bet 1 (Odds +240):
Potential Profit = ($335.20 × 240) / 100 = $804.48
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $335.20 + $804.48 = $1,139.68
Bet 2 (Odds -140):
Potential Profit = ($664.80 × 100) / 140 ≈ $474.86
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $664.80 + $474.86 = $1,139.66
Profit Analysis:
Total Stakes = $1,000
Potential Returns:
- If Bet 1 wins: $1,139.68
- If Bet 2 wins: $1,139.66
Potential Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes
- If Bet 1 wins: $1,139.68 - $1,000 = $139.68
- If Bet 2 wins: $1,139.66 - $1,000 = $139.66
The calculations suggest a profit of approximately $139.67 regardless of the outcome.
Implications
Arbitrage Opportunity: The data indicates that this could be a valid arbitrage betting opportunity, potentially allowing for a profit irrespective of the game's result.
Considerations:
- Odds Fluctuations: Sportsbook odds can change rapidly; it's essential to confirm current odds before placing any bets.
- Betting Limits: Sportsbooks may have limits on stakes, especially for alternate spreads, which could affect the feasibility of the arbitrage.
- House Rules: Differences in sportsbook policies regarding bet settlement, especially on alternate markets, should be reviewed.
- Event Changes: Since the game is scheduled over a year from now, potential scheduling changes or unforeseen circumstances could impact the bets.
- Capital Tie-Up: Funds will be tied up until the event concludes, which may affect liquidity and opportunity cost.
Conclusion
The presented betting scenario appears to offer a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market. While the theoretical calculations show a possibility for profit regardless of the game's outcome, practical factors such as changing odds, betting limits, and sportsbook policies may influence the actual results. Careful consideration and verification are advised before engaging in this betting strategy.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Betting involves risk, and it's important to gamble responsibly. Always verify the current odds and consult with a professional if necessary.