Arbitrage Alert: Hawks vs. Heat NBA Odds Gap (ROI: 9.4%)
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM. This opportunity arises from differing odds offered by two bookmakers on alternate spread markets, potentially allowing for a net gain regardless of the game's outcome.
Analysis
Event Details:
Date & Time: December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM
Teams: Atlanta Hawks (Home) vs. Miami Heat (Away)
League: NBA
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Alternate Spreads
Bet: Miami Heat +3.5
Odds: +136 (American Odds)
Stake: $463.64
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetRivers
Market: Alternate Spreads
Bet: Atlanta Hawks -3.5
Odds: +104 (American Odds)
Stake: $536.36
The combined stakes amount to $1,000. These bets are structured to cover all possible outcomes based on the point spread, which is designed to level the playing field between the two teams.
Discussion
Analyzing the potential outcomes based on the point spreads:
Scenario 1: Miami Heat +3.5 Covers
If the Miami Heat win the game by any margin or lose by less than 4 points (1-3 points), Bet 1 wins. The calculations are as follows:
Winnings from Bet 1:
Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100) = $463.64 × (136 / 100) = $630.55
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $463.64 + $630.55 = $1,094.19
Loss from Bet 2:
Stake Lost = $536.36
Net Gain:
Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,094.19 - $1,000 = $94.19
Scenario 2: Atlanta Hawks -3.5 Covers
If the Atlanta Hawks win the game by 4 or more points, Bet 2 wins. The calculations are as follows:
Winnings from Bet 2:
Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100) = $536.36 × (104 / 100) = $557.82
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $536.36 + $557.82 = $1,094.18
Loss from Bet 1:
Stake Lost = $463.64
Net Gain:
Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,094.18 - $1,000 = $94.18
Summary:
In both scenarios, the net gain is approximately $94. This is achieved by balancing the stakes in proportion to the odds, ensuring that the total return remains consistent regardless of which bet wins.
Conclusion
The analysis demonstrates that, given the specified odds and stakes, there is a consistent net gain in this situation. This stems from the differences in odds provided by the bookmakers on the alternate spreads for this game. Such opportunities are a key aspect of arbitrage betting in sports betting, where bettors aim to exploit discrepancies in betting markets.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activity. Sports betting involves risk, and it is important to be aware of the laws and regulations in your jurisdiction before participating.