Arbitrage Alert: Georgia State vs. Mercer (ROI: 9.2%)
Introduction
A recent opportunity in sports betting has emerged involving a National Collegiate Athletic Association Basketball (NCAAB) game between the Georgia State Panthers (home team) and the Mercer Bears (away team), scheduled for December 28, 2024. This potential arbitrage betting scenario involves placing two opposing bets on the moneyline market with two different bookmakers, BetMGM and BetRivers, to potentially secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome.
Analysis
In this scenario, the following bets are proposed:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Mercer Bears to win
- Odds: -210 (American odds)
- Stake: $739.93
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Georgia State Panthers to win
- Odds: +320 (American odds)
- Stake: $260.07
To assess the viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity, it is essential to convert the American odds to decimal odds and calculate the potential payouts and profits.
Conversion of Odds to Decimal Odds:
For negative American odds (-210):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / |-210|) = 1 + (100 / 210) ≈ 1.4762
For positive American odds (+320):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (320 / 100) = 1 + 3.20 = 4.20
Calculating Potential Payouts and Profits:
Case 1: Mercer Bears Win
- Bet 1 Payout: $739.93 × 1.4762 ≈ $1,091.10
- Profit from Bet 1: $1,091.10 - $739.93 = $351.17
- Loss from Bet 2: -$260.07
- Total Profit: $351.17 - $260.07 = $91.10
Case 2: Georgia State Panthers Win
- Bet 2 Payout: $260.07 × 4.20 = $1,092.29
- Profit from Bet 2: $1,092.29 - $260.07 = $832.22
- Loss from Bet 1: -$739.93
- Total Profit: $832.22 - $739.93 = $92.29
The total amount staked is $739.93 + $260.07 = $1,000. In both cases, there is a potential profit of approximately $91 to $92, indicating a possible arbitrage opportunity.
Discussion
While the mathematical calculations suggest a profitable arbitrage betting opportunity in sports betting, several factors need to be considered:
Implied Probabilities:
Calculating the implied probabilities can highlight discrepancies:
- Mercer Bears: (-(-210) / (-(-210) + 100)) × 100% ≈ (210 / 310) × 100% ≈ 67.74%
- Georgia State Panthers: (100 / (320 + 100)) × 100% ≈ (100 / 420) × 100% ≈ 23.81%
- Total: 67.74% + 23.81% = 91.55%
The combined implied probability is less than 100%, which is indicative of an arbitrage betting opportunity. However, such a significant difference (over 8%) is uncommon and may signal an error.
Potential Bookmaker Error:
The substantial disparity in odds between the two bookmakers could be due to a palpable error, particularly with BetRivers offering +320 on the Georgia State Panthers. Bookmakers often reserve the right to void bets placed on incorrect odds, which would affect the arbitrage.
Bookmaker Rules and Policies:
Differences in bookmaker rules regarding cancellations, postponements, or overtime can impact bet settlements. If one bet is voided or adjusted due to specific terms and conditions, it may negate the intended arbitrage effect.
Stake Limitations and Bet Acceptance:
High stakes may trigger risk management protocols, leading to stake limitations or delays in bet acceptance. Rapid changes in odds, a common occurrence in sports betting markets, can also affect the feasibility of placing both bets at the desired odds.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity with a possible profit margin of around 9%. However, practical considerations such as bookmaker errors, differing rules, and market volatility introduce risks that may impact the outcome. It is crucial to carefully evaluate these factors when exploring arbitrage betting opportunities in sports betting to understand the potential implications fully.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and it is important to conduct thorough research and consider all variables before engaging in any betting activities. No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information.