Arbitrage Alert: Coppin St Eagles vs Georgetown Hoyas Betting Opportunity
Answer:
1. Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAAB game between the Coppin St Eagles and the Georgetown Hoyas on December 28, 2024, at 12:00 PM. This analysis examines the potential arbitrage bet involving the Alternate Team Totals market for the Georgetown Hoyas at 84.5 points.
2. Detailed Analysis
The proposed arbitrage bet involves placing two opposing bets on the same market with different bookmakers:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Under 84.5 points
- Odds: +100 (Decimal odds: 2.00)
- Stake: $518.07
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Over 84.5 points
- Odds: +115 (Decimal odds: 2.15)
- Stake: $481.93
There are two possible outcomes:
- Georgetown Hoyas score 84 points or fewer (Under 84.5)
- Georgetown Hoyas score 85 points or more (Over 84.5)
Outcome 1: Under 84.5 Points
- Bet 1 wins: Payout = $518.07 * 2.00 = $1,036.14; Profit = $518.07
- Bet 2 loses: Loss = -$481.93
- Net Profit: $518.07 - $481.93 = $36.14
Outcome 2: Over 84.5 Points
- Bet 2 wins: Payout = $481.93 * 2.15 = $1,036.15; Profit = $554.22
- Bet 1 loses: Loss = -$518.07
- Net Profit: $554.22 - $518.07 = $36.15
The slight difference in net profit is due to rounding; both scenarios yield a similar profit.
3. Implications and Considerations
The implied probabilities based on the odds are:
- Under 84.5 points (+100 odds): 50%
- Over 84.5 points (+115 odds): Approximately 46.51%
Total implied probability: Approximately 96.51%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.
Key considerations include:
- Market Consistency: Both bets are on the Alternate Team Totals for the same point total, ensuring consistency.
- Settlement Rules: It's important to confirm that both bookmakers include overtime in their total points markets, as this can impact the outcome.
- Bet Acceptance: Ensure that both bookmakers accept the proposed stakes to execute the potential arbitrage betting opportunity.
- Terms and Conditions: Reviewing the bookmakers' policies on voided bets, cancellations, and any other contingencies is crucial.
4. Summary
The analysis suggests that, under the provided conditions, there is a possibility of securing a profit regardless of the game's outcome. The calculated net profit is approximately $36.14 on a total stake of $1,000, representing a return of about 3.6%. This hinges on consistent settlement rules, acceptance of bets, and absence of unforeseen events affecting the bets.
5. Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risks, and it's important to carefully consider all factors before placing any bets. Always review the terms and conditions of the bookmakers and consult with a professional if necessary.