Adjust Stakes for NCAAB Arbitrage Profit (ROI: 12.0%)

Fresh Arbitrage Opportunity in NCAAB Matchup

A new betting opportunity has emerged for the upcoming NCAAB game between the Colorado St Rams and the New Mexico Lobos on December 28, 2024, at 3:05 PM. This analysis explores the potential arbitrage situation presented by differing odds from two bookmakers.

Analysis of the Betting Odds

The betting data indicates the following:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
• Team: Colorado St Rams
• Odds: -114 (American odds)
• Stake: $523.39

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetRivers
• Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
• Team: New Mexico Lobos
• Odds: +135 (American odds)
• Stake: $476.61

To assess the arbitrage potential, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:

• Colorado St Rams (-114): 1.8772
• New Mexico Lobos (+135): 2.35

Calculating potential returns:

• If Colorado St Rams win:
  • Payout: $523.39 × 1.8772 ≈ $982.51
  • Net Profit: $982.51 - $1,000 (total stake) = -$17.49
• If New Mexico Lobos win:
  • Payout: $476.61 × 2.35 ≈ $1,119.01
  • Net Profit: $1,119.01 - $1,000 = $119.01

Discussion of Potential Outcomes

The current stakes do not result in a risk-free arbitrage:

• Negative Outcome: A loss of $17.49 occurs if the Colorado St Rams win.
• Positive Outcome: A profit of $119.01 is realized if the New Mexico Lobos win.

This imbalance indicates that the bets are not properly calibrated to guarantee a profit regardless of the game's outcome. For a true arbitrage, the returns from both bets should be equal or at least both profitable.

Adjusting the stakes can create a balanced arbitrage situation:

• Calculate Correct Stakes:
  • Let S₁ be the stake on Colorado St Rams, and S₂ = $1,000 - S₁.
  • Set payouts equal: S₁ × 1.8772 = ($1,000 - S₁) × 2.35.
  • Solve for S₁: S₁ ≈ $556.07.
• Adjusted Stakes:
  • Colorado St Rams: $556.07
  • New Mexico Lobos: $443.93
• Equal Payouts:
  • Payouts for both outcomes: Approximately $1,044.74.
  • Net Profit: $1,044.74 - $1,000 = $44.74.

By adjusting the stakes, a consistent profit is achievable regardless of the game's result.

Conclusion

The initial betting positions do not constitute a risk-free arbitrage due to the potential loss if the favored team wins. However, by recalibrating the stakes to $556.07 on the Colorado St Rams and $443.93 on the New Mexico Lobos, bettors can create an arbitrage opportunity with a guaranteed profit of approximately $44.74.

It is crucial to verify the odds and ensure that the bookmakers accept the adjusted stakes. Additionally, bettors should be mindful of bookmakers' policies on arbitrage betting and potential stake limitations.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Betting involves risk, and individuals should gamble responsibly and consider consulting with a professional before making any wagering decisions.