Adjust Stakes for Haywood Highsmith 3-Point Bet Arbitrage (ROI: 38.7%)
Introduction
A potential arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for the upcoming NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat on December 28, 2024, at 3:10 pm. The focus is on a player prop bet concerning Haywood Highsmith's total three-pointers made, specifically whether he will make over or under 1.5 threes. This analysis examines the details of the bets placed to determine if a risk-free arbitrage betting opportunity exists.
Analysis
The proposed arbitrage involves two bets placed with different bookmakers:
Bet 1: Under 1.5 three-pointers at DraftKings with American odds of +180 and a stake of $495.50.
Bet 2: Over 1.5 three-pointers at BetMGM with American odds of -175 and a stake of $504.50.
First, the American odds are converted to decimal odds for straightforward calculations:
Bet 1 Decimal Odds: (+180) converts to 2.80.
Bet 2 Decimal Odds: (-175) converts to approximately 1.571.
The potential outcomes are analyzed based on whether Haywood Highsmith makes under or over 1.5 three-pointers:
Scenario 1 - Under 1.5 Threes:
- Bet 1 wins: $495.50 x 2.80 = $1,387.40.
- Bet 2 loses: -$504.50.
- Net Profit: $1,387.40 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $387.40 profit.
Scenario 2 - Over 1.5 Threes:
- Bet 2 wins: $504.50 x 1.571 = $793.00.
- Bet 1 loses: -$495.50.
- Net Profit: $793.00 - $1,000 (total stakes) = -$207.00 loss.
Discussion
The calculations indicate that the current stakes result in a profit only if Haywood Highsmith makes under 1.5 three-pointers. If he makes over 1.5 threes, there is a significant loss. This discrepancy means the bets do not form a true arbitrage opportunity, as a genuine arbitrage in sports betting would yield a profit regardless of the outcome.
To create a risk-free arbitrage bet, the stakes must be adjusted so that the potential payouts are equal in both scenarios. Using the ratio of the decimal odds, the stakes can be recalibrated:
Stake Ratio Calculation:
- Set payouts equal: 2.80 x Stake1 = 1.571 x Stake2.
- Solving for the stake ratio: Stake1/Stake2 = 1.571/2.80 ≈ 0.561.
Assuming a total investment of $1,000:
- Stake1 = $1,000 x 0.5612 / (1 + 0.5612) ≈ $359.56.
- Stake2 = $1,000 - $359.56 ≈ $640.44.
Adjusted Outcomes:
- Both bets yield a payout of approximately $1,006.77.
- Net Profit: $1,006.77 - $1,000 = $6.77 profit in either scenario.
Conclusion
The initial stakes of $495.50 and $504.50 do not provide a risk-free arbitrage opportunity due to the uneven potential outcomes. By adjusting the stakes to approximately $359.56 on the Under bet and $640.44 on the Over bet, the potential payouts become equalized, resulting in a modest profit of about $6.77 regardless of the game's outcome. This adjustment transforms the bet into a valid arbitrage betting opportunity.
It is essential to note that in the dynamic environment of sports betting, factors such as changing odds, betting limits, and bookmaker policies can affect the viability of executing this arbitrage. Bettors should consider these factors and conduct thorough due diligence before engaging in arbitrage betting strategies.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve risks, and individuals should carefully assess their objectives and consult with a professional before engaging in any betting activities.