9.2% Return on Columbia vs. Fairfield (ROI: 9.2%)

Introduction

A recent opportunity has emerged in the world of sports betting, specifically within the NCAAB (College Basketball) league. The upcoming game on December 28, 2024, between the Columbia Lions and the Fairfield Stags presents a potential arbitrage betting scenario. This analysis aims to objectively examine the details of the bets and assess the viability of the arbitrage opportunity.

Detailed Analysis

Two bets are identified from different bookmakers:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
• Outcome: Columbia Lions to win
• Odds: -146 (American odds)
• Stake: $647.87

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetRivers
• Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
• Outcome: Fairfield Stags to win
• Odds: +210 (American odds)
• Stake: $352.13

To assess the arbitrage potential, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:

• Columbia Lions: Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 146) ≈ 1.6849
• Fairfield Stags: Decimal Odds = 1 + (210 / 100) = 3.1

The implied probabilities are calculated:

• Columbia Lions: 1 / 1.6849 ≈ 59.38%
• Fairfield Stags: 1 / 3.1 ≈ 32.26%

The total implied probability is approximately 91.64%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity.

Discussion of Potential Outcomes

By allocating stakes proportionally based on the inverse of the decimal odds, the total investment is $1,000:

• Total Stake: $647.87 (Bet 1) + $352.13 (Bet 2) = $1,000

Potential payouts are calculated for both outcomes:

• If Columbia Lions win:
  • Payout = $647.87 x 1.6849 ≈ $1,092.14
  • Profit = $1,092.14 - $1,000 = $92.14
• If Fairfield Stags win:
  • Payout = $352.13 x 3.1 ≈ $1,092.60
  • Profit = $1,092.60 - $1,000 = $92.60

In both scenarios, there is a consistent profit of approximately $92, representing a return of about 9.2% on the total stake.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that the proposed bets on the Columbia Lions and the Fairfield Stags create an arbitrage opportunity with a potential risk-free profit. The calculations show that, regardless of the game's outcome, the structured stakes and odds yield a positive return. This scenario exemplifies how differences in bookmakers' odds can be leveraged in arbitrage betting within sports betting markets.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activity. Betting involves risk, and individuals should consider their actions carefully and consult with a professional advisor if necessary.