2024 NCAAB Betting Arbitrage Alert: Portland vs. Washington State (ROI: 155.3%)
Arbitrage bet involves Washington State to win at +176 odds (stake $924.92) on FanDuel and Portland to win at +3300 odds (stake $75.08) on BetMGM, yielding net profit of ~ $1,552.72 regardless of outcome. Unusually high odds and event timing suggest caution due to potential bookmaker errors.
Introduction
An intriguing opportunity has emerged in the sports betting arena involving a potential arbitrage situation for an upcoming college basketball game. The event features the Portland Pilots hosting the Washington State Cougars in the NCAAB league on December 28, 2024, at 8:03 PM. The following analysis examines the details of this betting scenario to assess its validity and potential outcomes.
Analysis
The proposed arbitrage involves two bets placed with different bookmakers:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline
- Outcome: Washington State Cougars to win
- Odds: +176
- Stake: $924.92
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Moneyline
- Outcome: Portland Pilots to win
- Odds: +3300
- Stake: $75.08
The total stake across both bets is $1,000. The American odds format indicates potential profits relative to a $100 stake. For odds of +176, a $100 bet yields a $176 profit, while odds of +3300 yield a $3,300 profit on the same stake.
If Washington State wins:
- Profit from Bet 1: ($924.92 * 1.76) = $1,627.86
- Total Return: $924.92 (stake) + $1,627.86 (profit) = $2,552.78
- Loss from Bet 2: $75.08
- Net Profit: $2,552.78 - ($924.92 + $75.08) = $1,552.78
If Portland wins:
- Profit from Bet 2: ($75.08 * 33) = $2,477.64
- Total Return: $75.08 (stake) + $2,477.64 (profit) = $2,552.72
- Loss from Bet 1: $924.92
- Net Profit: $2,552.72 - ($924.92 + $75.08) = $1,552.72
Discussion
The calculations suggest a substantial profit of approximately $1,552.72 regardless of the game's outcome, implying a significant arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. This stems from a discrepancy in the odds offered by the two bookmakers, creating a scenario where covering all possible outcomes leads to a profit.
However, there are critical factors to consider:
Odds Validity: Odds of +3300 for a Moneyline bet in college basketball are unusually high unless there is a significant mismatch between teams. This raises questions about the accuracy of BetMGM's odds for the Portland Pilots.
Event Timing: The game is scheduled over a year in advance, which is uncommon for college basketball. This may introduce risks such as schedule changes, cancellations, or adjustments in team dynamics that could affect the bet.
Bookmaker Policies: Both FanDuel and BetMGM have terms and conditions that address palpable errors or obvious mistakes in odds listings. There is a possibility that one or both bets could be voided if the bookmakers identify an error.
Betting Limits and Acceptance: High odds and unusual stakes may trigger bookmaker reviews. The acceptance of a $75.08 stake at +3300 odds might be subject to limitations or require manual approval.
Conclusion
While the arbitrage betting analysis presents the potential for a significant profit, several factors suggest caution. The unusually high odds on the Portland Pilots and the extended time before the event indicate potential risks, including the possibility of bookmaker errors or bet cancellations. It is essential to consider these aspects carefully when evaluating this sports betting opportunity.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to participate in any betting activities. Sports betting involves risks, and individuals should consult with a professional advisor before making any decisions.